Modeling the rise and demise of Classic Maya cities: Climate, conflict, and economies of scale

What is it about?

Urbanization represents a major transition in human history, however the factors influencing the emergence of early cities remain debated. Whereas modern and historic cities offer distinct economic advantages, higher susceptibility to diseases and increased inequality and competition would have seemingly discouraged early agrarian populations from aggregating into large urban centers. Weston McCool et al. incorporated paleoclimatological, paleoecological, demographic, and historical data into a population ecology framework to quantify the drivers of urbanism in the Classic Maya Lowlands from 250–1000 CE. The results suggest that cities rise and fall via complex, nonlinear pathways. In the Classic Maya Lowlands, decreases in agricultural yields due to arid conditions and increases in the frequency of conflicts motivated agrarian populations to join together in the construction of agricultural infrastructure and institutions of shared defense, despite the associated reduction in autonomy and increase in inequality. The expansion of Classic Maya cities resulted in sustained socioecological disruption around urban centers. This latter factor, in addition to improving environmental conditions in rural areas and declining economic efficiency in cities, in turn contributed to the eventual abandonment of cities in the region. According to the authors, the modeling framework could provide insight into the processes of urbanization in other ancient and contemporary cities.

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Photo by Andy Bridge on Unsplash

Photo by Andy Bridge on Unsplash

Why is it important?

Over half of people on earth today live in cities, yet the origins of urban living remains a topic of intense debate. To understand why individuals decided to come together in cities, we leverage population ecology theory and quantify the drivers of urbanism across the Classic Maya Lowlands. Results suggest that individuals sought to mitigate climatic downturns and increasing conflict by joining together to construct agricultural infrastructure and institutions of shared defense, at the cost of reduced autonomy. Conversely, improved conditions in rural areas and sustained socioecological disruption around urban centers in-part led to the abandonment of cities. These findings not only illuminate the specific case but provide a framework for understanding processes of urbanization in the past and future.