What is it about?

Amazonian and Andean trees are not keeping pace with climate change. Using 40+ years of data from over 66,000 trees across Peru and Bolivia, we found that tree communities are shifting slowly compared to how fast temperatures are rising. While some warm-adapted species are becoming more common, this shift is mainly due to the death and slower growth of cool-adapted trees, not the spread of heat-loving species. As a result, many tropical trees—especially those in the Amazon—may not survive future warming, leading to major changes in the composition and function of the world’s most diverse forests.

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Why is it important?

The Amazon and Andes house an extraordinary variety of plant and animal life, and any disruption to their structure or function could have far-reaching ecological and societal impacts. If tree communities cannot adapt quickly enough to rising temperatures—especially in the Amazon—this could lead to widespread species loss, altered carbon storage, and weakened forest resilience. These changes not only threaten local ecosystems but also reduce the planet’s capacity to buffer climate change, highlighting the urgent need for conservation strategies that account for slower-than-expected ecological responses.

Perspectives

This article is the result of a collaborative effort involving over 20 researchers from institutions across the Americas and Europe. Our ground-based dataset, compiled through established networks such as the Andes Biodiversity and Ecosystem Research Group (ABERG) and ForestPlots.net (RAINFOR), constitutes one of the most extensive long-term monitoring programs in the tropics. Long-term monitoring is invaluable because it allows us to track gradual but critical changes in tree species composition, growth, mortality, and carbon dynamics over time. Such a comprehensive dataset is crucial for advancing our understanding of tropical forest responses to climate change and for informing evidence-based conservation and management strategies aimed at safeguarding these ecologically and globally important vital ecosystems.

PhD William Farfan-Rios
Wake Forest University

Read the Original

This page is a summary of: Amazonian and Andean tree communities are not tracking current climate warming, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, August 2025, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2425619122.
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