What is it about?
Seasonal flu spreads in complex ways that change over time due to factors like behaviour and seasons. We developed a method to detect when transmission changes, using Irish hospital data from recent flu seasons. We found consistent shifts in spread, especially around Christmas, and built a model that can help improve forecasting and planning.
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Why is it important?
Understanding how flu spreads over time helps improve forecasting and public health planning. Flu transmission changes due to factors like behaviour, holidays, and the environment. This study introduces a method to detect these changes using hospital data, helping identify key patterns and better predict peaks so that timely actions can be taken.
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This page is a summary of: Detecting changepoints in dynamical systems: Modeling time-varying transmission of seasonal influenza, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, May 2026, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2533861123.
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