What is it about?

Tropical forests are being lost at alarming rates, mainly because land is being converted to produce agricultural commodities such as soy and beef. These changes have serious consequences for climate change, biodiversity, and the livelihoods of people who depend on forests. In many deforestation hotspot regions, large agribusinesses now expand into areas that are already used by smallholder farmers and Indigenous communities who live in and rely on forests. However, it is not well understood how the presence of these different land users together affects how quickly forests disappear. This study focuses on two major deforestation hotspots in South America: the Dry Chaco and the Chiquitano Forest. Together, these regions cover nearly one million square kilometers. Using detailed maps of land use from 2000 to 2023 and satellite data on forest loss, we examined how different land users—such as agribusinesses, forest-dwelling smallholders, Indigenous communities, and conservation areas—overlap in space and how their interactions influence deforestation. We find that large-scale, capitalized agriculture has expanded mainly into areas already used by forest-dependent smallholders and Indigenous peoples, rather than into unused land. This shows that land competition has intensified strongly over time. Despite this pressure, forests tend to be lost more slowly in places where forest-dwelling smallholders or Indigenous communities remain present. In other words, when these groups persist in the landscape, they can slow down deforestation caused by expanding commodity agriculture. This finding supports the idea that competition for land can hinder, rather than accelerate, forest loss. We also find that conservation areas help maintain forest cover. However, when conservation areas overlap with forest-dwelling smallholders, their combined effect is not stronger than either one alone. This suggests that local forest users already play an important role in protecting forests, and that conservation policies may be most effective when they recognize and support these existing practices. Overall, the study shows that who uses the land - and how different land users interact—matters greatly for the fate of tropical forests.

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Why is it important?

Stopping tropical deforestation is essential for tackling climate change, conserving biodiversity, and supporting millions of people who depend on forests for their livelihoods. Policies often assume that forests are best protected either by expanding conservation areas or by restricting local land use. Our findings challenge this view by showing that forest-dwelling smallholders and Indigenous communities can themselves slow deforestation, even in regions under intense pressure from large-scale agriculture. This is important because agribusiness expansion rarely happens in empty spaces. Instead, it often takes place on land already used by people with weak land rights and limited political power. Ignoring these groups in land-use planning risks increasing social inequality while missing opportunities to protect forests more effectively. The study highlights that securing land rights for forest-dependent people and recognizing their role as land stewards can deliver both social and environmental benefits. It also shows that conservation efforts should carefully consider where they overlap with local land users to avoid unnecessary conflicts or ineffective interventions. Overall, understanding land-use interactions—not just land-use types—is crucial for designing fair and effective strategies to safeguard tropical forests.

Perspectives

Much of what we know about deforestation comes from large-scale datasets that classify land in broad categories such as “forest,” “cropland,” or “pasture.” These datasets are powerful, but they often fail to capture the people who actually live in forests and depend on them. In particular, forest-dwelling smallholders—both Indigenous and non-Indigenous—are frequently invisible in conventional maps, statistics, and assessments. When land is treated as empty or unused simply because it does not fit standard categories of agriculture or conservation, the people who manage and rely on these landscapes are effectively erased. This invisibility has real consequences. For forest smallholders, it can mean insecure land rights, exclusion from decision-making, and heightened vulnerability when capitalized agriculture or conservation areas expand into their territories. If their presence is not documented, it becomes easier to justify land grabs, displacement, or policies that restrict livelihoods without offering viable alternatives. Being absent from the data often translates into being absent from policy. What is equally troubling is that this blind spot also harms forests. Our research shows that where forest smallholders persist, deforestation tends to be slower—even in regions experiencing intense pressure from commodity agriculture. When assessments overlook these actors, they also overlook an important source of forest stewardship. This can lead to conservation strategies that prioritize exclusion over collaboration, or that invest scarce resources where forests might already be relatively secure. Recognizing forest smallholders in data, maps, and analyses is therefore not only a matter of social justice. It is essential for understanding how deforestation actually happens and for designing responses that work. Making these people visible is a necessary step toward protecting both forest livelihoods and forest ecosystems in rapidly changing frontier landscapes.

Marie Pratzer
Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin

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This page is a summary of: Commodity frontiers expand more slowly into tropical forests where forest smallholders are present, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, February 2026, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2528453123.
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