What is it about?
Like a Hydra, when you cut off one head (arrest a central node), the criminal network doesn't die—it rewires itself to be decentralized and harder to catch. It’s time to stop playing "Whack-a-Mole" with individuals and start reshaping the economic landscape of the entire ecosystem.
Featured Image
Photo by Sandip Kalal on Unsplash
Why is it important?
Using detailed data from the Dutch National Police, we show that targeted arrests and disruptions can unintentionally strengthen criminal networks rather than weaken them. Instead of collapsing, these networks adapt—redistributing roles and becoming more coordinated and resilient. By combining real-world evidence with computational models of adaptive behavior, our study reveals a counterintuitive dynamic: pressure on key individuals can trigger system-wide reorganization that makes the whole network harder to disrupt. These insights challenge conventional enforcement strategies and extend well beyond crime. They help explain resilience in many complex systems, from ecosystems and organizations to technological networks, and highlight why well-intended interventions can produce unexpected—and sometimes counterproductive—outcomes.
Perspectives
I really enjoyed working with Mike Lees an Vítor V. Vasconcelos. The three of us bring a unique perspective that synergizes well and produces a forward momentum in the research -- generating new insights every time. I hope this paper will be used by future scientists to build more intricate and explanatory models that can inform future policy in the Netherlands an beyond.
Casper Van Elteren
Queensland University of Technology
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: The paradox of intervention: Resilience in adaptive multirole coordination networks, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, December 2025, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2509856122.
You can read the full text:
Contributors
The following have contributed to this page
