Rising rates of wildfire building destruction in the conterminous U.S.

What is it about?

This study found that the destruction rate of wildfires, or the number of exposed buildings that were destroyed relative to those that survived, more than tripled in the conterminous U.S. from 2002-2022 – from 10% to 32%. While it is well-understood that wildfire building destruction in the U.S. has increased over the last two decades, this study documented that increases in destruction have outpaced increases in total exposure. This finding indicates that fire behavior has grown more extreme, or that affected communities have become more susceptible to destruction. Researchers assessed destruction rates by mapping all destroyed and surviving buildings in the 362 most destructive fires since 2002, revealing that the increase in wildfire destructiveness was driven by increasing numbers of exposed buildings in forests, more extreme fire weather, and exposed buildings being more interspersed with vegetation. The study focused on broad patterns and trends in destruction rates but was not able to account for individual home-hardening or fire suppression actions. The findings highlight how increasing wildfire destructiveness compounds the challenges of increasing burned areas and development in the wildland-urban interface. We present a new dataset on wildfire building destruction and exposure that can be used to better understand risk at fine scales.

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Photo by Daniel Lincoln on Unsplash

Photo by Daniel Lincoln on Unsplash

Why is it important?

Wildfire disasters are becoming more common in the U.S. and other parts of the world, and policy solutions around vegetation management, community planning, and increased suppression resources are hotly debated. This research reveals that there are multiple drivers of increasing wildfire destruction, and that increasing wildfire activity in places that are not adapted to frequent fires is of particular concern.