What is it about?
This study explores the causes of a period of peak tropical cyclone activity between 1650 and 1680. The era of satellite measurement of tropical cyclone activity extends back only until 1979, and instrumental observation extends only into the 19th century, potentially obscuring trends and insights evident in tropical cyclone activity earlier than instrumented records. Kuan-Hui Elaine Lin and colleagues combined a reconstructed time series of tropical cyclone activity covering the years 1368-1911 with instrumented observations to study northwestern Pacific tropical cyclone activity over centuries. The time series is based on Chinese documentary records. The peak frequency of tropical cyclones occurred between 1650 and 1680. This period coincided with the Maunder Minimum, a period of decreased solar activity and cold land temperatures also known as the Little Ice Age. Although terrestrial temperatures were anomalously low during the Maunder Minimum, marine temperature proxy reconstructions suggest that ocean temperatures were anomalously warm over the western Pacific. This land-sea temperature disparity may have intensified summer monsoon circulation and contributed to highly active cyclone activity. The results offer insight into dynamic feedback systems between solar activity, land and sea temperatures, and extreme weather events, informing forecasting of future tropical cyclone activity under climate change.
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Why is it important?
Tropical cyclone imposes tremendous threats to the human society, but predicting TC behavior is still difficult. This study presents a newly reconstructed TC dataset in the Northwestern Pacific from the mid-14th century onward, and provides important evidence and implications about the tropical cyclone behavior in response to ongoing global climate change.
Perspectives
This research of using Chinese documentary records to reconstruct past climates started a decade ago at Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan. By creating the REACHES database, now non-Chinese speaking researchers can all utilize the Chinese records for their own research and explorations. We began this project from pure enthusiasm and scientific curiosity. It has been such a big pleasure to work with this interdisciplinary team who can always generously share their knowledge. Together we can prove the value and usefulness of these old records in telling us how past climates have evolved especially in the face of future climate change.
kuanhui elaine lin
National Taiwan Normal University
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Intensified tropical cyclone activity in East Asia during the Maunder (solar) Minimum, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, December 2025, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2419759122.
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