What is it about?

We study how much less carbon flows from the atmosphere into the global ocean when the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) weakens. We find that throughout the 21st century, between a half and a full year of human-caused CO2 emissions will not be taken up by the ocean because of a weakening AMOC. This CO2 will instead remain in the atmosphere and increase economic estimates of climate change damages by around 1%.

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Why is it important?

There is growing concern about a weakening AMOC. Yet, the economic impacts of this remain understudied. Previous economic research only looked at surface temperature effects, but there is so much more: effects on the carbon cycle effects, on rainfall patterns, on storm intensity, on extreme events, etc. Our study is a first step in going beyond surface temperature impacts and shows a possible way forward for studying further economic impacts of AMOC weakening. Additional studies are crucial for understanding the range of possible climate outcomes in a world with changing AMOC and for designing appropriate adaptation measures.

Perspectives

While the AMOC as such gets a lot of attention, people often discuss whether the AMOC has a tipping point or how likely it is to collapse within this century. These discussions are important, but I think it is equally important to take a closer look at the expected impacts of a weakening AMOC in general. Whether it collapses or not - everybody agrees it will weaken to some extent and it is high time to get a better grasp on the possible economic consequences.

Felix Schaumann

Read the Original

This page is a summary of: Weakening AMOC reduces ocean carbon uptake and increases the social cost of carbon, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, February 2025, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2419543122.
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