The importance of geography in forecasting future fire patterns under climate change

What is it about?

Increasingly extreme wildfires are threatening ecosystems and human communities. Decision-makers depend upon models and maps of future fire conditions to inform management priorities, so it is important that these maps are as reliable as possible. We found that different geographical extents of model boundaries can result in nearly opposite future fire predictions for the same geographical areas. This illustrates the importance of accounting for the unique patterns of vegetation, climate, and human infrastructure in fire projections and management decisions.

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Photo by Michael Held on Unsplash

Photo by Michael Held on Unsplash

Why is it important?

There is no one-size-fits-all prediction for fire futures in California or a single strategy to mitigate fire risk to people, infrastructure, and ecosystem resilience. Failure to consider geographical variation in drivers of wildfire may result in erroneous future projections and misguided management decisions.