Trends in lifetime years married from 1880 to 2019

What is it about?

Trends in life expectancy and marriage patterns work together to determine expected lifetime years married. In 1880, adult life expectancy was short and marriages were more likely to end by death than divorce. Since then, although there have been sub- stantial life expectancy gains in adulthood, marriage has been increasingly delayed or forgone and cohabitation and divorce are far more prevalent. Whether adults today can expect to spend more or fewer years married than in the past depends on the relative magnitude of changes in mortality and marriage. We estimate trends in men’s expected lifetime years married (and in other marital statuses) from 1880 to 2019 and by bachelor’s degree (BA) status from 1960 to 2019. Our results show a rise in men’s expected lifetime years married between 1880 and the Baby Boom era and a subsequent fall. There are large and growing differences by BA status. Men with a BA have had high and relatively stable expected lifetime years married since 1960. For men without a BA, expected lifetime years married has plummeted to lows not seen among men since 1880. Cohabitation accounts for a substantial fraction, although not all, of these declines. Our results demonstrate how increasing inequality in both life expectancy and marriage patterns combine to amplify educational differences in lifetime experiences of coresidential partnerships.

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Photo by Rémi Walle on Unsplash

Photo by Rémi Walle on Unsplash

Why is it important?

The number of years Americans spend married and in other marital statuses across their lives has major consequences for their lived experiences. In the 1980s and 1990s, there was much debate among scholars and the public about declining marriage rates, but research showed that, in terms of expected lifetime years married, surprisingly little change had occurred between the Baby Boom era and 1980. We take a long-run view, estimating expected lifetime years married and in other marital statuses from 1880 to 2019. We find striking declines in expected lifetime years married since 1960 for men and especially for men without a BA. By contrast, expected lifetime years married for men with a BA has remained high and relatively stable.