What is it about?

We designed a statistical indicator to predict whether a rainfall decrease can lead a vegetated ecosystem close to abrupt desertification.

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Why is it important?

Ecosystems can display abrupt regime shifts that oftentimes are irreversible. Anticipating these changes, such as desertification of semi-arid areas, or forest-to-savanna transitions, is crucial for land management and the resilience of the human communities depending on these ecosystems.


We add a new tool in the ecosystem of early warning indicators of desertification which can contribute, in the future, to building a precise remote monitoring system.

Giulio Tirabassi
Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya

Read the Original

This page is a summary of: Entropy-based early detection of critical transitions in spatial vegetation fields, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, December 2022, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2215667120.
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