What is it about?
The reproduction number Rt indicates the average number of cases generated by an infected person at time t and is a key indicator of the spread of an epidemic. EpiInvert estimates Rt by inverting the renewal equation using a variational approach. EpiInvert can be run in real-time on every country in the world, and every US state through a web interface at www.ipol.im/epiinvert.
Photo by Fusion Medical Animation on Unsplash
Why is it important?
EpiInvert estimates Rt several days in advance with respect to EpiEstim (the most widely accepted method for estimating Rt). Using Rt and the renewal equation, EpiInvert also computes a restored version of the daily incidence curve more current to study the epidemic trend than the usual average of the last 7 days. These facts are extremely relevant, given that the control of social distancing policies requires a timely estimate of Rt and the epidemic trend.
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Computing the daily reproduction number of COVID-19 by inverting the renewal equation using a variational technique, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, December 2021, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2105112118.
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EpiInvert Online Demo
Online facility to apply in real time EpiInvert on every country in the world, and every US state
EpiInvert software documentation
EpiInvert is very easy to install and use on your own computer. This website includes EpiInvert C++ source code with simple usage instructions
Short time forecasting of the COVID-19 incidence curve by learning from incidence evolution in the past
Explanation of an EpiInvert extension to make a short time forecast of the daily incidence curve.
Incorporating festive days to the weekly bias correction of the incidence curve using EpiInvert
Explanation of an EpiInvert extension to correct the impact of festive days on the estimate of Rt
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