Climate Change Impact on Probable Maximum Precipitation: A Study on Neyyar River Basin

What is it about?

This study focuses on the impact of climate change on the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) of the Neyyar River Basin in South Kerala, India. The research utilizes the HadCM3 General Circulation Model (GCM) and the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) to downscale rainfall data for two scenarios, A2 and B2. The PMP is estimated using the Hershfield method, and the study finds a decreasing trend in rainfall. The PMP of the A2 and B2 scenarios have decreased by 6.48% and 19.81% respectively compared to the historical PMP. The study concludes that considering the decreasing trend and the available data, the B2 PMP value can be considered for future design, while following sustainable development norms and pollution control measures.

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Why is it important?

This research is crucial because it highlights the importance of accurately designing hydraulic structures in the face of climate change. Proper design is essential to ensure the stability and safety of these structures. By understanding the effects of climate change on Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP), engineers can make more informed decisions when designing structures like large dams, spillways, and aqueducts. This research focuses on the Neyyar River Basin in South Kerala, providing valuable insights for the region's specific climate conditions. Key Takeaways: 1. Climate change impacts the stability of hydraulic structures, emphasizing the need for accurate design criteria. 2. Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) and Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) are crucial parameters for designing high-risk hydraulic structures. 3. The study uses historical and future PMP maps for the Neyyar River Basin, incorporating the effects of climate change. 4. The Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) was used to downscale rainfall data and account for systematic biases. 5. The study found a decreasing trend in rainfall for the Neyyar River Basin, which affects PMP estimation and future design considerations.