What is it about?

Climate change is severely affecting rainfall patterns in many places around the world. Extreme rainfall events are becoming more common, and this trend will likely worsen with time. As a result, stormwater systems are failing more often in many cities. Thus, the design of these systems must consider the impact of climate change. Engineers use intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves based on historic data to predict rainfall patterns. However, they assume that the chances of extreme rainfall do not change over time. This can lead to the design of short-lived stormwater systems. In this study, the authors explored a new approach to develop IDF curves by accounting for the impact of climate change in rainfall patterns. They used a numerical function called copula to model the relationship between rainfall intensity and duration. This led to more accurate results.

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Why is it important?

Neglecting the effects of climate change on rainfall can cause flooding disasters in many cities with inadequate stormwater systems. This is true for many developing urban areas in India, which have plans for new stormwater systems. The authors tested their new technique for an urban catchment in Northeast India. Their model’s predictions were more reliable than those of existing methods. The approach can also predict rainfall for different time periods and climate change scenarios. This makes it versatile and more valuable. KEY TAKEAWAY: Improving current methods to predict rainfall patterns is essential in the light of climate change. The proposed approach could help check the competency of existing and new stormwater systems. This can help prevent disasters in the future. This research relates to the following Sustainable Development Goals: • SDG 13: Climate Action • SDG 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities • SDG 6: Clean Water and Sanitation • SDG 9: Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure • SDG 17: Partnerships for the Goals

Read the Original

This page is a summary of: Importance of Copula-Based Bivariate Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for an Urbanized Catchment Incorporating Climate Change, Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, July 2023, American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE),
DOI: 10.1061/jhyeff.heeng-5577.
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