Base rate utilization in the estimation of violent and criminal risk.

What is it about?

Individuals often judge risk differently than it actually is. This is true for both the general public and professionals. In criminal justice contexts, experts can misjudge risk, partly because risk assessment scores are not always used effectively. This study looked at whether giving people numeric “base rate” information (i.e., how often an event actually happens) would make their risk estimates more accurate. A total of 181 mental health professionals and 132 students estimated the likelihood of reoffense in violent, sexual, or mental health offense scenarios. About half were given base rate numbers and half were not. Those with the base rates gave lower and more accurate estimates, showing that numerics can help improve judgment. However, even with base rates, people still tended to overestimate risk. These findings suggest that risk assessments could be improved by presenting clear numbers alongside explanations that help put those numbers in context.

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Photo by engin akyurt on Unsplash

Photo by engin akyurt on Unsplash