What are the odds? Children's understanding of possibility and probability.

What is it about?

Some research has suggested that even infants are capable of reasoning about probabilities, however, much of this work has focused on the reaction-to or interpretation-of past events. Here, we wanted to investigate children's ability to use probabilistic information to actively shape the future. Across two experiments, we examined 2-5 year olds' ability to differentiate between between possible and guaranteed outcomes. We found that children could distinguish between a possible and guaranteed outcome - whether positive or negative - from age 4, but struggled to distinguish between two possible outcomes even at age 5.

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Photo by Naser Tamimi on Unsplash

Photo by Naser Tamimi on Unsplash

Why is it important?

Although previous research has suggested that even infants are capable of reasoning probabilistically, our research showed that even well into the pre-school years, many children struggle with basic probability concepts. This has important implications for when and how such concepts are introduced in the classroom.