What is it about?
We compared the incumbent electoral performance in the 110 Italian provinces and we found confirmation that the higher the unemployment levels the lower the support for parties supporting the Monti's government.
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Why is it important?
We demonstrate that parties supporting a care-taker government may suffer from the state of the economy as parties with direct executive responsibilities. We checked for the impact of contigupous provinces, thus relaxing the (untenable) assumption (in a within-country analysis) of independence amongst the units.
Perspectives
Interestingly, the same interpretation roughly applies even to the Italian 2018 election, with the state of the economy either directly influencing voting behaviors, or indirectly representing a favourable environments for populist appeals.
Marco Giuliani
Universita degli Studi di Milano
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Retrospective voting in the Italian 2013 election: a sub-national perspective, Italian Political Science Review/Rivista Italiana di Scienza Politica, August 2017, Cambridge University Press,
DOI: 10.1017/ipo.2017.19.
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