What is it about?

What would Israel’s economy have looked like without the 2000 Palestinian Intifada? Using a synthetic model, the research finds that the Second Intifada notably reduced the GDP per capita of Israel.

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Why is it important?

The synthetic model allows us to examine the counterfactual question by statistically comparing economic growth trajectories of Israel and a “synthetic” IsraelIn without the case of the Second Intifada. The research shows that the opportunity cost of conflict was indeed substantial and significant.

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This page is a summary of: The Opportunity Cost of Conflict: Statistically Comparing Israel and Synthetic Israel, Political Science Research and Methods, February 2015, Cambridge University Press,
DOI: 10.1017/psrm.2014.47.
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