Predicting membership retention in fitness clubs

What is it about?

The paper applies the Stimulus–Organism–Response (SOR) framework to examine the factors influencing fitness club members' decisions to retain or cancel their membership. It considers both cognitive factors (service quality and brand identity attractiveness) and affective factors (rapport with staff/members and state anxiety in the club environment) as external stimuli. These factors influence the ‘organism’, which is member satisfaction, and that influences the ‘response’, which is the intention to cancel. The study employs a dataset of 635 UK fitness club members, linked with cancellation outcomes after 12 months, to assess the predictive capability of these psychological evaluations on retention. The findings demonstrate that service quality had the strongest positive effect on satisfaction, followed by brand identity attractiveness and rapport, while state anxiety negatively impacted satisfaction. Satisfaction significantly mediated the relationship between all four stimuli and cancellation intention, although state anxiety also had a direct positive effect on cancellation intention, making it only partially mediated.

Featured Image

Why is it important?

The study provides the first validation of the SOR framework for predicting fitness club membership retention, highlighting the need for managers to address both quality/brand perceptions and emotional comfort in the club environment. It also contributes methodologically by combining self-reported intentions with actual retention data to improve predictive accuracy. The study not only verifies the relevance of service quality and brand identity but also shows that state anxiety can directly lead to cancellations. Given that state anxiety directly increases cancellation intention, efforts should be made to create a less intimidating environment, including clear equipment instructions, proactive staff support, and discreet help for self-conscious members. Technology such as AI chatbots and workout planning tools can further enhance comfort and engagement, while simple, well-designed surveys can help identify and support at-risk members early. The results provide a plan for how to improve member satisfaction and cut down on churn by showing what to measure and consider in developing service offerings to support retention.