What is it about?
Investors often consider Bitcoin and gold as possible protection against financial market instability. But do they behave similarly during different types of crises? Using daily financial data from 2014 to 2026, this study distinguishes between stock market valuation declines, sudden increases in uncertainty, and periods when both occur together. The findings show that Bitcoin behaves differently depending on the source of market stress. It can move relatively independently of stocks during valuation-driven downturns but becomes more closely connected to equity markets when fear rises. Gold provides more consistent protection during uncertainty-driven episodes.
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Why is it important?
These results have implications for investors, portfolio managers, and financial risk professionals. Treating every financial crisis as the same type of event can lead to misleading conclusions about diversification. The findings suggest that Bitcoin should not be regarded as a universal safe-haven asset, while gold remains comparatively more reliable when market uncertainty intensifies.
Perspectives
The important question is not simply whether Bitcoin or gold performs well during crises, but what type of crisis is occurring. Our research shows that the origin of financial stress matters. Distinguishing valuation shocks from uncertainty shocks offers a more informative foundation for portfolio diversification and risk management.
Dr. Ricardo Teruel-Gutiérrez
Universidad Politecnica de Cartagena
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Stress selective behavior: Asymmetric responses of bitcoin and gold to valuation and uncertainty shocks, Finance Research Letters, September 2026, Elsevier,
DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2026.110036.
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