Is this an outbreak of the World Health Organisation's 'Disease X'?

What is it about?

Since the start of 2012 the total number of deaths in England have shown a rapid and unprecedented 11.5% increase which has totally defied all actuarial forecasts. At the same time, medical admissions have shown an equally large and unexplained increase. The two are linked by the simple fact that around half of a person’s lifetime hospital admissions occur in the last year of life – irrespective of the age at death. A wide range of infectious conditions and cancers show a large increase, and these can be collectively described as the consequences of ‘progressive dwindling’ leading up to decease, which may or may not occur in hospital. Respiratory conditions make up the largest proportion of the increase while increased injury and fractures represent increasing frailty in the last months of life. A large increase in sepsis and other bacterial and viral infections hints at failing immune function. The cause of the unexplained increase in both deaths and admissions needs to be established. But whatever the cause, the change in the absolute number of deaths needs to be added to existing models forecasting acute medical workload.

Featured Image

Why is it important?

Between early 2012 and the end of 2016 deaths in England have shown an unexpected and unexplained 11.5% increase. This has been matched with an unexplained increase in admissions for mainly infectious (including respiratory) and cancer diagnoses. Cancers showing high growth (% per annum) are thyroid & endocrine (11.4%), lymphoid & haematopoietic (5.7%), male genital (5%), skin (4.9%), benign (4%), breast (3.6%), mouth and pharynx (3.6%). Increasing injury and fractures reflects increasing frailty. A potential shift in immune function appears to account for this eclectic mix of diagnoses. This is highly likely to be a documented outbreak of the World Health Organisation's 'Disease X'.

Perspectives