What is it about?
This study tracks the dramatic evolution of Lake Aksu-Kule, an endorheic lake in the Kunlun Mountains, Xinjiang, which rapidly expanded from under 12.0 km² before 2009 to 47.2km² by 2017. The research highlights a critical event: on September 11, 2024, following intense precipitation, the lake suffered a massive outburst. The flood surged through the Andier River, destroying infrastructure and farmland. Our analysis concludes that while glacier retreat is present, the primary drivers of this expansion and subsequent collapse were increasing regional precipitation and extreme rainfall events (notably in 2010 and 2016), rather than meltwater alone.
Featured Image
Why is it important?
This case is a landmark in disaster prevention. In 2020, our research team issued an emergency warning titled "Potential Outburst of Aksu Kule Lake and Risk of Significant Disaster," which received high-level government attention. When the outburst finally occurred in 2024, the timely warning enabled local authorities to evacuate 2,269 residents, successfully preventing any loss of life. Scientifically, it confirms that increasing precipitation—rather than just glacier melt—is becoming the primary driver of lake instability in this high-altitude region.
Perspectives
The "disappearance" of the lake has not solved the water problem; it has changed it. The outburst expanded the Endere River Basin by 81%. Without the lake acting as a natural buffer, any future heavy rainfall in the high mountains will rush directly downstream with unprecedented intensity. We urge local governments to shift focus from "lake monitoring" to "river basin flood prevention," as the risk of devastating floods in the Endere River oasis has now permanently increased.
changwei xie
Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Expansion and outburst process of Aksu Kule Lake in the Kunlun Mountains, Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau, Advances in Climate Change Research, February 2026, Tsinghua University Press,
DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2025.11.005.
You can read the full text:
Contributors
The following have contributed to this page
