What is it about?

The COVID-19 pandemic has changed many aspects of people's lives including travel since early 2020. Specifically, it has adversely affected people traveling by air and has hit the air transport industry significantly. But, how big is the COVID-19 impact? In order to answer such a question, we collected air passenger traffic data from the US, European countries, and China which accounted for over 75% of the world's total air passenger traffic. We created mathematical models to estimate the COVID-19 impact on air passenger traffic.

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Why is it important?

Our findings showed that air passenger traffic was significantly recovered in the US and European countries but it encountered significant falls in 2021 and 2022 in China due to spikes in COVID-19 variant cases in many provinces and the implementation of zero-tolerance COVID-19 policy. Implications of the study including the robustness of seasonal ARIMA models and the importance of timely government policies are given.


Writing this article was a fruitful experience as my co-author and I deep dived into the modeling of the COVID-19 impact on people's lives such as air traffic. We also observed the interconnectedness between air passenger traffic and economic development (probably will be addressed in our next paper).

Professor W.M. To
Macao Polytechnic University

Read the Original

This page is a summary of: Modeling of the COVID-19 impact on air passenger traffic in the US, European countries, and China, Journal of Air Transport Management, March 2024, Elsevier,
DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2024.102556.
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