Carbon allocation across Chinese provinces: Balancing equity and efficiency

What is it about?

This research tackles a practical question for China's climate strategy: how to fairly and efficiently divide the national carbon emission "budget" among provinces. China has set a national goal to peak carbon emissions by 2030—but provinces are vastly different. Some, like Beijing and Shanghai, are economically advanced with cleaner energy systems. Others, like Inner Mongolia and Shanxi, rely heavily on coal and serve as the nation's energy and industrial bases. Giving every province the same emissions target would be both unfair and unrealistic. The study proposes a "bidirectional" allocation method that works in two directions simultaneously. Bottom-up, it looks at each province's economic growth, energy efficiency, and ability to decarbonize, estimating what emissions space it needs to continue developing. Top-down, it takes the national 2030 peak target and distributes reduction responsibilities across provinces based on principles of fairness (equity) and economic performance (efficiency). To find the best balance, the researchers generated 961 different allocation plans, then narrowed them down to 18 optimal solutions using mathematical evaluation tools. These 18 plans all strike a reasonable balance between equity (Gini coefficient 0.29–0.33) and efficiency (Malmquist index 1.010–1.015). The results show a clear pattern: advanced provinces like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong would need to cut emissions below 2020 levels in most optimal plans, while developing provinces like Tianjin and Shaanxi would still have room to grow. This reflects a core principle of climate policy—those with greater capability and less development need should take on a larger share of the burden.

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Photo by Matthias Heyde on Unsplash

Photo by Matthias Heyde on Unsplash

Why is it important?

This research is critically timely. China has shifted to "dual control of carbon emissions" during the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), making both total emissions and carbon intensity binding targets. But national goals cannot be implemented without provincial-level allocation. This paper provides a scientific framework to turn China's 2030 peak ambition into fair, actionable targets for 30 diverse provinces—bridging top-down policy and bottom-up realities.

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