What is it about?
Understanding what affects our winter weather has always been important. One of the key patterns influencing the winter climate around the North Atlantic is called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This pattern can lead to very cold or unusually warm weather and affects how much rain or snow we get. Although scientists know that ocean temperatures from earlier in the year play a role in shaping this pattern, exactly how this happens has been unclear. In our study, we used advanced statistical methods to show how ocean temperatures in November are connected to the NAO throughout the subsequent winter. We discovered that certain processes in the atmosphere, like heat transfer from the ocean to the atmosphere, and sharp temperature differences, help explain this connection. Our findings reveal a two-way interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere, showcasing a complex relationship that helps explain our winter weather.
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Photo by Knut Troim on Unsplash
Why is it important?
Understanding the influences on winter weather patterns is important not only for day-to-day weather forecasting but also for long-term planning in agriculture, disaster management, and public safety. This study sheds light on how ocean temperatures in late autumn/early winter can predict and potentially influence weather conditions in the North Atlantic region. By clarifying these connections, our research may help improve the accuracy of weather predictions, enhancing our ability to prepare for and respond to climate variability.
Perspectives
I've been fascinated by the interplay between the ocean and the winter atmosphere for many years. During my PhD I studied polar lows, and after that I've tried to understand how the NAO is influenced by the stratosphere. This was the first time I investigated the feedbacks between the atmosphere and the ocean. It was exciting to be able to quantify some of these feedback mechanisms using mediation analysis, a technique that I've previously used to study other feedbacks in the climate system.
Dr Erik W Kolstad
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Causal oceanic feedbacks onto the winter NAO, Climate Dynamics, February 2024, Springer Science + Business Media,
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-024-07128-y.
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