What is it about?
Food prices have risen sharply across Europe in recent years, but not every country has experienced inflation in the same way. Our research looks at how food price inflation has developed in all EU countries and the UK between 2005 and 2024. We find that instead of moving together, countries form different “inflation clubs” – groups of countries where food prices rise and fall in a similar pattern. There are five such clubs, and membership changes over time, especially during crises such as the financial crash of 2008, the eurozone crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Some countries return to normal price growth quickly after a shock, while in others high prices last much longer. This means that even within the EU’s single market, consumers and businesses face very different inflation experiences. Our results suggest that European and national policymakers need targeted solutions: there is no “one-size-fits-all” policy to control food inflation.
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Why is it important?
What sets our work apart is that it uncovers a striking reality: despite decades of integration, food price inflation in Europe does not converge to a single path. Instead, countries cluster into distinct groups whose inflation dynamics change over time, especially during major crises such as the financial crash, COVID-19, and the recent energy price surge. This is highly relevant today. Food inflation has become one of the most pressing concerns for citizens and governments alike, shaping political debates from Brussels to national parliaments. By showing which groups of countries are most exposed to persistent price shocks, our findings underline the limits of “one-size-fits-all” policies and point to the need for targeted strategies to protect consumers, strengthen supply chains, and make the Single Market more resilient.
Perspectives
From my perspective, what I find most striking about this research is how it challenges the idea that the EU Single Market has fully unified food prices. Even after years of integration, differences remain large, and they become even more visible during crises. As someone interested in how markets function under stress, I see this as a reminder that economic integration is never complete — institutions, taxes, and market structures continue to matter. For me, the project was also rewarding because it connects abstract econometric methods with a very concrete, everyday issue: the price of food in people’s shopping baskets. That direct link between advanced research and real-life concerns is exactly why I believe this study matters.
Professor Imre Fertő
Eotvos Lorand Tudomanyegyetem
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Heterogeneity in Food Price Inflation Convergence Across the EU: Evidence From Club Dynamics and Structural Breaks, Agribusiness, August 2025, Wiley,
DOI: 10.1002/agr.70020.
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