What is it about?

The 2019 cyclone named Idai had devastating impacts in Mozambique and neighbouring countries. In this paper I checked how well Idai and 38 other storms and cyclones could have been predicted with today's weather models. On average, the storms were only predicted a few days ahead in time, but on the bright side they often give indications that a storm might take place up to several weeks ahead.

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Why is it important?

Tropical storms and cyclones are the most damaging weather systems in the Mozambique region. It is crucial to predict them as long as possible before they hit land so that people can evacuate in time.


I wrote this paper because I wanted to highlight how poorly storms are predicted in this region compared to tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic. I would like to find out how much improved weather forecasts would matter, as I think the procedures for evacuation and preventative measures are underdeveloped in the region.

Dr Erik W Kolstad
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre

Read the Original

This page is a summary of: Prediction and Precursors of Idai and 38 Other Tropical Cyclones and Storms in the Mozambique Channel, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, September 2020, Wiley,
DOI: 10.1002/qj.3903.
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