All Stories

  1. ESD Ideas: Global climate response scenarios for IPCC assessments

    Article • Earth System Dynamics, August 2020, Copernicus GmbH

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  2. Australian warming: observed change and global temperature targets

    Article • July 2020, Wiley

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  3. Uncertainty in Aerosol Radiative Forcing Impacts the Simulated Global Monsoon in the 20th Century

    Article • June 2020, Copernicus GmbH

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  4. Digitizing observations from the Met Office Daily Weather Reports for 1900–1910 using citizen scientist volunteers

    Article • Geoscience Data Journal, June 2020, Wiley

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  5. Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6

    Article • Earth System Dynamics, May 2020, Copernicus GmbH

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  6. Sensitivity of historical climate simulations to uncertain aerosol forcing

    Article • Geophysical Research Letters, May 2020, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  7. Observed Emergence of the Climate Change Signal: From the Familiar to the Unknown

    Article • Geophysical Research Letters, March 2020, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  8. "The most important thing to do about climate change is to talk about it." – Katherine Hayhoe

    Article • March 2020, Copernicus GmbH

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  9. Accelerated increases in global and Asian summer monsoon precipitation from future aerosol reductions

    Article • March 2020, Copernicus GmbH

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  10. Emergence of opposite trends in daytime and night-time urban heat island intensities in England

    Article • March 2020, Copernicus GmbH

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  11. Sea ice and atmosphere interactions and predictability: preliminary results using HadGEM3

    Article • March 2020, Copernicus GmbH

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  12. Uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing impacts the simulated global monsoon in the 20th century

    Article • March 2020, Copernicus GmbH

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  13. Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple Large Ensembles and CMIP5/6

    Article • February 2020, Copernicus GmbH

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  14. Supplementary material to "Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple Large Ensembles and CMIP5/6"

    Article • February 2020, Copernicus GmbH

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  15. Accelerated increases in global and Asian summer monsoon precipitation from future aerosol reductions

    Article • January 2020, Copernicus GmbH

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  16. Supplementary material to "Accelerated increases in global and Asian summer monsoon precipitation from future aerosol reductions"

    Article • January 2020, Copernicus GmbH

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  17. ESD Ideas: Global climate response scenarios for IPCC AR6

    Article • January 2020, Copernicus GmbH

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  18. Causes of climate change over the historical record

    Article • Environmental Research Letters, December 2019, Institute of Physics Publishing

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  19. Uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing impacts the simulated global monsoon in the 20th century

    Article • December 2019, Wiley

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  20. Observed emergence of the climate change signal: from the familiar to the unknown

    Article • November 2019, Wiley

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  21. Hourly weather observations from the Scottish Highlands (1883–1904) rescued by volunteer citizen scientists

    Article • Geoscience Data Journal, August 2019, Wiley

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  22. Thunderstorm occurrence at ten sites across Great Britain over 1884–1993

    Article • Geoscience Data Journal, August 2019, Wiley

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  23. Human‐driven habitat conversion is a more immediate threat to Amboseli elephants than climate change

    Article • Conservation Science and Practice, July 2019, Wiley

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  24. Near‐zero humidities on Ben Nevis, Scotland, revealed by pioneering 19th‐century observers and modern volunteers

    Article • International Journal of Climatology, May 2019, Wiley

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  25. Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate

    Article • Nature Climate Change, January 2019, Springer Science + Business Media

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  26. Broad threat to humanity from cumulative climate hazards intensified by greenhouse gas emissions

    Article • Nature Climate Change, November 2018, Springer Science + Business Media

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  27. Predicted Chance That Global Warming Will Temporarily Exceed 1.5 °C

    Article • Geophysical Research Letters, November 2018, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Professor Ed Hawkins, Louis-Philippe Caron

  28. Science Directions in a Post COP21 World of Transient Climate Change: Enabling Regional to Local Predictions in Support of Reliable Climate Information

    Article • Earth s Future, November 2018, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  29. Interpretations of the Paris climate target

    Article • Nature Geoscience, March 2018, Springer Science + Business Media

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  30. Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability: Challenges and Opportunities

    Article • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, March 2018, American Meteorological Society

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  31. Seasonal cycles enhance disparities between low- and high-income countries in exposure to monthly temperature emergence with future warming

    Article • Environmental Research Letters, November 2017, Institute of Physics Publishing

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  32. Potential volcanic impacts on future climate variability

    Article • Nature Climate Change, October 2017, Springer Science + Business Media

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  33. Estimating Changes in Global Temperature since the Preindustrial Period

    Article • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, September 2017, American Meteorological Society

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  34. Importance of the pre-industrial baseline for likelihood of exceeding Paris goals

    Article • Nature Climate Change, July 2017, Springer Science + Business Media

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  35. Causes of differences in model and satellite tropospheric warming rates

    Article • Nature Geoscience, June 2017, Springer Science + Business Media

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  36. Global risk of deadly heat

    Article • Nature Climate Change, June 2017, Springer Science + Business Media

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  37. Timing of Anthropogenic Emergence in Climate Extremes

    Article • June 2017, Wiley

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  38. Population-based emergence of unfamiliar climates

    Article • Nature Climate Change, May 2017, Nature

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  39. Frost fairs, sunspots and the Little Ice Age

    Article • Astronomy & Geophysics, April 2017, Oxford University Press (OUP)

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  40. Climate research must sharpen its view

    Article • Nature Climate Change, January 2017, Nature

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  41. The Maunder minimum and the Little Ice Age: an update from recent reconstructions and climate simulations

    Article • Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate, January 2017, EDP Sciences

    Dr Mathew J Owens, Professor Ed Hawkins

  42. Large differences in regional precipitation change between a first and second 2 K of global warming

    Article • Nature Communications, December 2016, Nature

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  43. Sea ice decline and 21st century trans-Arctic shipping routes

    Article • Geophysical Research Letters, September 2016, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  44. CO2, the greenhouse effect and global warming: from the pioneering work of Arrhenius and Callendar to today's Earth System Models

    Article • Endeavour, September 2016, Elsevier

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  45. An empirical model for probabilistic decadal prediction: global attribution and regional hindcasts

    Article • Climate Dynamics, July 2016, Springer Science + Business Media

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  46. The Arctic Predictability and Prediction on Seasonal-to-Interannual TimEscales (APPOSITE) data set version 1

    Article • Geoscientific Model Development, June 2016, Copernicus GmbH

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  47. Reconciled climate response estimates from climate models and the energy budget of Earth

    Article • Nature Climate Change, June 2016, Nature

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  48. Decadal climate prediction with a refined anomaly initialisation approach

    Article • Climate Dynamics, June 2016, Springer Science + Business Media

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  49. Connecting Climate Model Projections of Global Temperature Change with the Real World

    Article • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, June 2016, American Meteorological Society

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  50. Poorest countries experience earlier anthropogenic emergence of daily temperature extremes

    Article • Environmental Research Letters, May 2016, Institute of Physics Publishing

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  51. Decadal predictions with the HiGEM high resolution global coupled climate model: description and basic evaluation

    Article • Climate Dynamics, April 2016, Springer Science + Business Media

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  52. Robust Future Changes in Temperature Variability under Greenhouse Gas Forcing and the Relationship with Thermal Advection

    Article • Journal of Climate, March 2016, American Meteorological Society

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  53. Predictability of the Arctic sea ice edge

    Article • Geophysical Research Letters, February 2016, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  54. Making sense of the early-2000s warming slowdown

    Article • Nature Climate Change, February 2016, Springer Science + Business Media

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  55. Atmospheric and Oceanic Contributions to Irreducible Forecast Uncertainty of Arctic Surface Climate

    Article • Journal of Climate, January 2016, American Meteorological Society

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  56. A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

    Article • Geoscientific Model Development, December 2015, Copernicus GmbH

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  57. Improved Arctic sea ice thickness projections using bias-corrected CMIP5 simulations

    Article • The Cryosphere, December 2015, Copernicus GmbH

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  58. What does global mean temperature tell us about local climate?

    Article • Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences, October 2015, Royal Society Publishing

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  59. Aspects of designing and evaluating seasonal-to-interannual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems

    Article • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, September 2015, Wiley

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  60. Towards predictive understanding of regional climate change

    Article • Nature Climate Change, September 2015, Nature

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  61. Irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections

    Article • Climate Dynamics, September 2015, Springer Science + Business Media

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  62. The Maunder minimum (1645–1715) was indeed a grand minimum: A reassessment of multiple datasets

    Article • Astronomy and Astrophysics, September 2015, EDP Sciences

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  63. The timing of anthropogenic emergence in simulated climate extremes

    Article • Environmental Research Letters, September 2015, Institute of Physics Publishing

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  64. Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures

    Article • Geophysical Research Letters, August 2015, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  65. Improved Arctic sea ice thickness projections using bias corrected CMIP5 simulations

    Article • The Cryosphere Discussions, July 2015, Copernicus GmbH

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  66. A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

    Article • Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, May 2015, Copernicus GmbH

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  67. Graphics: Scrap rainbow colour scales

    Article • Nature, March 2015, Nature

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  68. Sensitivity of terrestrial precipitation trends to the structural evolution of sea surface temperatures

    Article • Geophysical Research Letters, February 2015, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  69. Influence of internal variability on Arctic sea-ice trends

    Article • Nature Climate Change, January 2015, Nature

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  70. Models agree on forced response pattern of precipitation and temperature extremes

    Article • Geophysical Research Letters, December 2014, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  71. Will Arctic sea ice thickness initialization improve seasonal forecast skill?

    Article • Geophysical Research Letters, November 2014, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Dr Steffen Tietsche, Professor Ed Hawkins

  72. The Statistical DownScaling Model - Decision Centric (SDSM-DC): conceptual basis and applications

    Article • Climate Research, October 2014, Inter-Research Science Center

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  73. An event-based approach to understanding decadal fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

    Article • Climate Dynamics, September 2014, Springer Science + Business Media

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  74. A review on Arctic sea-ice predictability and prediction on seasonal to decadal time-scales

    Article • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, July 2014, Wiley

    Dr Steffen Tietsche, Professor Ed Hawkins

  75. Wetter then drier in some tropical areas

    Article • Nature Climate Change, July 2014, Nature

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  76. Uncertainties in the timing of unprecedented climates

    Article • Nature, July 2014, Nature

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  77. Pan-Arctic and Regional Sea Ice Predictability: Initialization Month Dependence

    Article • Journal of Climate, June 2014, American Meteorological Society

    Dr Steffen Tietsche, Professor Ed Hawkins

  78. The Interpretation and Use of Biases in Decadal Climate Predictions

    Article • Journal of Climate, April 2014, American Meteorological Society

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  79. Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability

    Article • March 2014, Cambridge University Press

    Dr Paul James Durack, Professor Ed Hawkins

  80. Pause for thought

    Article • Nature Climate Change, February 2014, Nature

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  81. Seasonal to interannual Arctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models

    Article • Geophysical Research Letters, February 2014, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Dr Steffen Tietsche, Professor Ed Hawkins

  82. Decadal Climate Prediction: An Update from the Trenches

    Article • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, February 2014, American Meteorological Society

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  83. Atlantic overturning in decline?

    Article • Nature Geoscience, December 2013, Nature

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  84. Examining reliability of seasonal to decadal sea surface temperature forecasts: The role of ensemble dispersion

    Article • Geophysical Research Letters, November 2013, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  85. Influences of increasing temperature on Indian wheat: quantifying limits to predictability

    Article • Environmental Research Letters, August 2013, Institute of Physics Publishing

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  86. On increasing global temperatures: 75 years after Callendar

    Article • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, June 2013, Wiley

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  87. Reply to “Comments on ‘A Simple, Coherent Framework for Partitioning Uncertainty in Climate Predictions’”

    Article • Journal of Climate, June 2013, American Meteorological Society

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  88. Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture

    Article • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, May 2013, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  89. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

    Article • Earth System Dynamics, April 2013, Copernicus GmbH

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  90. Calibration and bias correction of climate projections for crop modelling: An idealised case study over Europe

    Article • Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, March 2013, Elsevier

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  91. Reliability of regional climate model trends

    Article • Environmental Research Letters, March 2013, Institute of Physics Publishing

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  92. The upper end of climate model temperature projections is inconsistent with past warming

    Article • Environmental Research Letters, February 2013, Institute of Physics Publishing

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  93. A mechanism for Atlantic multidecadal variability in the Kiel Climate Model

    Article • Climate Dynamics, January 2013, Springer Science + Business Media

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  94. Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields from the 1960s to the 2030s

    Article • Global Change Biology, December 2012, Wiley

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  95. Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions

    Article • Climate Dynamics, December 2012, Springer Science + Business Media

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  96. Comment on "Multiyear Prediction of Monthly Mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26.5 N"

    Article • Science, November 2012, American Association for the Advancement of Science

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  97. Statistical decadal predictions for sea surface temperatures: a benchmark for dynamical GCM predictions

    Article • Climate Dynamics, October 2012, Springer Science + Business Media

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  98. Identifying uncertainties in Arctic climate change projections

    Article • Climate Dynamics, September 2012, Springer Science + Business Media

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  99. Aerosol contribution to the rapid warming of near-term climate under RCP 2.6

    Article • Geophysical Research Letters, September 2012, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  100. A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments

    Article • Climate Dynamics, August 2012, Springer Science + Business Media

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  101. Meteorology: Counting the coming storms

    Article • Nature Climate Change, July 2012, Nature

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  102. Our evolving climate

    Article • Significance, February 2012, Wiley

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  103. Time of emergence of climate signals

    Article • Geophysical Research Letters, January 2012, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  104. Projections of when temperature change will exceed 2 °C above pre-industrial levels

    Article • Nature Climate Change, October 2011, Nature

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  105. A Simple, Coherent Framework for Partitioning Uncertainty in Climate Predictions

    Article • Journal of Climate, September 2011, American Meteorological Society

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  106. Correction to “Bistability of the Atlantic overturning circulation in a global climate model and links to ocean freshwater transport”

    Article • Geophysical Research Letters, August 2011, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  107. Our evolving climate: communicating the effects of climate variability

    Article • Weather, June 2011, Wiley

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  108. Bistability of the Atlantic overturning circulation in a global climate model and links to ocean freshwater transport

    Article • Geophysical Research Letters, May 2011, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  109. Evaluating the potential for statistical decadal predictions of sea surface temperatures with a perfect model approach

    Article • Climate Dynamics, March 2011, Springer Science + Business Media

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  110. Processes governing the predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a coupled GCM

    Article • Climate Dynamics, February 2011, Springer Science + Business Media

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  111. Estimating Climatically Relevant Singular Vectors for Decadal Predictions of the Atlantic Ocean

    Article • Journal of Climate, January 2011, American Meteorological Society

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  112. The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of stratospheric ozone over the 21st century

    Article • Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, October 2010, Copernicus GmbH

    Dr Sandip Dhomse, Dr Andrew J Charlton-Perez, Professor Ed Hawkins

  113. The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change

    Article • Climate Dynamics, April 2010, Springer Science + Business Media

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  114. Robust dynamics of Amazon dieback to climate change with perturbed ecosystem model parameters

    Article • Global Change Biology, February 2010, Wiley

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  115. Decadal Prediction

    Article • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, October 2009, American Meteorological Society

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  116. The Potential to Narrow Uncertainty in Regional Climate Predictions

    Article • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, August 2009, American Meteorological Society

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  117. Decadal Predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a Coupled GCM: Forecast Skill and Optimal Perturbations Using Linear Inverse Modeling

    Article • Journal of Climate, July 2009, American Meteorological Society

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  118. Potential predictability of rapid changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

    Article • Geophysical Research Letters, June 2008, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  119. Variability of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation described by three-dimensional empirical orthogonal functions

    Article • Climate Dynamics, December 2007, Springer Science + Business Media

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  120. Variability of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation described by three-dimensional empirical orthogonal functions

    Article • Climate Dynamics, June 2007, Springer Science + Business Media

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  121. The 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey: the nature of the relative bias between galaxies of different spectral type

    Article • Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, January 2005, Oxford University Press (OUP)

    Professor Carlton M. Baugh, Professor Ed Hawkins

  122. The 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey: the blue galaxy fraction and implications for the Butcher-Oemler effect

    Article • Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, June 2004, Oxford University Press (OUP)

    Professor Carlton M. Baugh, Professor Ed Hawkins

  123. The 2dF galaxy redshift survey: clustering properties of radio galaxies

    Article • Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, June 2004, Oxford University Press (OUP)

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  124. The 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey: correlation functions, peculiar velocities and the matter density of the Universe

    Article • Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, November 2003, Oxford University Press (OUP)

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  125. The 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey: galaxy clustering per spectral type

    Article • Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, September 2003, Oxford University Press (OUP)

    Professor Carlton M. Baugh, Professor Ed Hawkins

  126. The 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey: the luminosity function of cluster galaxies

    Article • Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, July 2003, Oxford University Press (OUP)

    Professor Carlton M. Baugh, Professor Ed Hawkins

  127. No periodicities in 2dF Redshift Survey data

    Article • Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, October 2002, Oxford University Press (OUP)

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  128. The 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey: the environmental dependence of galaxy star formation rates near clusters

    Article • Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, August 2002, Oxford University Press (OUP)

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  129. The 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey: the dependence of galaxy clustering on luminosity and spectral type

    Article • Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, June 2002, Oxford University Press (OUP)

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  130. The 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey: Constraints on Cosmic Star Formation History from the Cosmic Spectrum

    Article • The Astrophysical Journal, April 2002, American Astronomical Society

    Professor Carlton M. Baugh, Professor Ed Hawkins

  131. The 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey: luminosity dependence of galaxy clustering

    Article • Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, November 2001, Oxford University Press (OUP)

    Professor Carlton M. Baugh, Professor Ed Hawkins

  132. The clustering of hot and cold IRAS galaxies: the redshift-space correlation function

    Article • Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, August 2001, Oxford University Press (OUP)

    Professor Ed Hawkins

  133. Climate projections.

    Article • CABI Publishing

    Professor Ed Hawkins