All Stories

  1. Assessing the Impact of Biased Target Variables on Machine Learning Models of Severe Hail

    Article • Weather and Forecasting, July 2025, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner, Montgomery L Flora

  2. Evaluation of 0–6-Hour Forecasts from the Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System and the Hybrid Analysis and Forecast System for Real-Time Cases in 2021

    Article • Weather and Forecasting, March 2025, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  3. Limitations of Short-Term Thunderstorm Forecasts from Convection-Allowing Models with 3-km Horizontal Grid Spacing

    Article • Weather and Forecasting, January 2025, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  4. A Red Flag Threat Index Based on the Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis for Use in the Warn-on-Forecast System

    Article • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, December 2024, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  5. Advancing Hazardous Weather Prediction in the 2024 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment

    Article • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, November 2024, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  6. Using Machine Learning to Predict Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecast Skill: Evaluation with the NSSL Warn-on-Forecast System

    Article • Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, July 2024, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  7. Simulated WSR-88D Observations of the Streamwise Vorticity Current

    Article • Journal of Operational Meteorology, April 2024, National Weather Association

    Patrick Skinner

  8. Collaborative Exploration of Storm-Scale Probabilistic Guidance for NWS Forecast Operations

    Article • Weather and Forecasting, February 2024, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  9. Verification of Quasi-Linear Convective Systems Predicted by the Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS)

    Article • Weather and Forecasting, January 2024, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  10. Warn-on-Forecast System: From Vision to Reality

    Article • Weather and Forecasting, January 2024, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  11. Interpreting Warn-on-Forecast System Guidance, Part I: Review of Probabilistic Guidance Concepts, Product Design, and Best Practices

    Article • Journal of Operational Meteorology, December 2023, National Weather Association

    Patrick Skinner

  12. The First Hybrid NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment for Advancing Severe Weather Prediction

    Article • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, December 2023, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  13. The NOAA Weather Prediction Center’s Use and Evaluation of Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System Guidance

    Article • Journal of Operational Meteorology, September 2023, National Weather Association

    Patrick Skinner

  14. Preliminary Use of Convection-allowing Models in Fire Weather

    Article • Journal of Operational Meteorology, July 2023, National Weather Association

    Patrick Skinner

  15. Exploring High-Impact Weather Communication across Time Scales for Route Planning through the Aviation Weather Testbed

    Article • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, April 2023, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  16. The Third Real-Time, Virtual Spring Forecasting Experiment to Advance Severe Weather Prediction Capabilities

    Article • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, February 2023, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  17. Quantification of NSSL Warn-on-Forecast System Accuracy by Storm Age Using Object-Based Verification

    Article • Weather and Forecasting, November 2022, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  18. Doppler Lidar and Mobile Radiosonde Observation-Based Evaluation of Warn-on-Forecast System Predicted Near-Supercell Environments during TORUS 2019

    Article • Weather and Forecasting, October 2022, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  19. An Iterative Storm Segmentation and Classification Algorithm for Convection-Allowing Models and Gridded Radar Analyses

    Article • Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, July 2022, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  20. Improving Estimates of U.S. Tornado Frequency by Accounting for Unreported and Underrated Tornadoes

    Article • Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, July 2022, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  21. Short-Term Prediction of a Nocturnal Significant Tornado Outbreak Using a Convection-Allowing Ensemble

    Article • Weather and Forecasting, June 2022, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  22. Exploring the Watch-to-Warning Space: Experimental Outlook Performance during the 2019 Spring Forecasting Experiment in NOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed

    Article • Weather and Forecasting, May 2022, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  23. Object-Based Verification of GSI EnKF and Hybrid En3DVar Radar Data Assimilation and Convection-Allowing Forecasts within a Warn-on-Forecast Framework

    Article • Weather and Forecasting, May 2022, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  24. The Second Real-Time, Virtual Spring Forecasting Experiment to Advance Severe Weather Prediction

    Article • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, April 2022, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  25. Exploring the Usefulness of Downscaling Free Forecasts from the Warn-on-Forecast System

    Article • Weather and Forecasting, February 2022, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  26. Evaluation of an experimental Warn‐on‐Forecast 3DVAR analysis and forecast system on quasi‐real‐time short‐term forecasts of high‐impact weather events

    Article • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, October 2021, Wiley

    Patrick Skinner, Dr Alexandre O Fierro

  27. Evaluating the Impact of Planetary Boundary Layer, Land Surface Model, and Microphysics Parameterization Schemes on Cold Cloud Objects in Simulated GOES‐16 Brightness Temperatures

    Article • Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, July 2021, American Geophysical Union (AGU)

    Patrick Skinner

  28. Analysis of End User Access of Warn-on-Forecast Guidance Products during an Experimental Forecasting Task

    Article • Weather Climate and Society, July 2021, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  29. Using Machine Learning to Generate Storm-Scale Probabilistic Guidance of Severe Weather Hazards in the Warn-on-Forecast System

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, May 2021, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  30. A Real-Time, Virtual Spring Forecasting Experiment to Advance Severe Weather Prediction

    Article • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, April 2021, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  31. The Vice and Virtue of Increased Horizontal Resolution in Ensemble Forecasts of Tornadic Thunderstorms in Low-CAPE, High-Shear Environments

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, April 2021, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  32. Updraft-Based Adaptive Assimilation of Radial Velocity Observations in a Warn-on-Forecast System

    Article • Weather and Forecasting, February 2021, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  33. Effects of Horizontal Grid Spacing and Inflow Environment on Forecasts of Cyclic Mesocyclogenesis in NSSL’s Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS)

    Article • Weather and Forecasting, December 2020, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  34. A Real-Time, Simulated Forecasting Experiment for Advancing the Prediction of Hazardous Convective Weather

    Article • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, November 2020, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  35. Assessing Systematic Impacts of PBL Schemes on Storm Evolution in the NOAA Warn-on-Forecast System

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, May 2020, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  36. Assimilation of GOES-16 Radiances and Retrievals into the Warn-on-Forecast System

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, May 2020, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  37. Probabilistic high‐impact rainfall forecasts from landfalling tropical cyclones using Warn‐on‐Forecast system

    Article • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, April 2020, Wiley

    Patrick Skinner

  38. Optimal Temporal Frequency of NSSL Phased Array Radar Observations for an Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System

    Article • Weather and Forecasting, January 2020, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  39. Systematic Comparison of Convection-Allowing Models during the 2017 NOAA HWT Spring Forecasting Experiment

    Article • Weather and Forecasting, October 2019, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  40. Test of a Weather-Adaptive Dual-Resolution Hybrid Warn-on-Forecast Analysis and Forecast System for Several Severe Weather Events

    Article • Weather and Forecasting, September 2019, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  41. New verification method for probabilistic forecasts of individual thunderstorms

    Article • Weather and Forecasting, September 2019, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner, Montgomery L Flora

  42. Meteorologists’ Interpretations of Storm-Scale Ensemble-Based Forecast Guidance

    Article • Weather Climate and Society, April 2019, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  43. Forecasting high-impact weather in landfalling tropical cyclones using a Warn-on-Forecast system

    Article • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, March 2019, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  44. Correcting under-reporting in the U.S. tornado database

    Article • Weather and Forecasting, February 2019, American Meteorological Society

    Corey Potvin, Patrick Skinner

  45. Exploring Applications of Storm-Scale Probabilistic Warn-on-Forecast Guidance in Weather Forecasting

    Article • January 2019, Springer Science + Business Media

    Patrick Skinner

  46. Comparison of Cloud Microphysics Schemes in a Warn-on-Forecast System Using Synthetic Satellite Objects

    Article • Weather and Forecasting, December 2018, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  47. Object-Based Verification of a Prototype Warn-on-Forecast System

    Article • Weather and Forecasting, October 2018, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  48. Assimilation of GOES-13 Imager Clear-Sky Water Vapor (6.5 μm) Radiances into a Warn-on-Forecast System

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, April 2018, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  49. Application of Two Spatial Verification Methods to Ensemble Forecasts of Low-Level Rotation

    Article • Weather and Forecasting, June 2016, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  50. Forcing Mechanisms for an Internal Rear-Flank Downdraft Momentum Surge in the 18 May 2010 Dumas, Texas, Supercell

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, November 2015, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  51. Documenting a Rare Tornado Merger Observed in the 24 May 2011 El Reno–Piedmont, Oklahoma, Supercell*

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, August 2015, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  52. A Comparison of Near-Surface Buoyancy and Baroclinity across Three VORTEX2 Supercell Intercepts

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, July 2015, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  53. VORTEX2 Observations of a Low-Level Mesocyclone with Multiple Internal Rear-Flank Downdraft Momentum Surges in the 18 May 2010 Dumas, Texas, Supercell*

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, August 2014, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner

  54. Observations of the Surface Boundary Structure within the 23 May 2007 Perryton, Texas, Supercell

    Article • Monthly Weather Review, December 2011, American Meteorological Society

    Patrick Skinner