Forecasting solar irradiation by using mesoscale model BRAMS and statistical post-processing methods

What is it about?

This study presents a methodology to get surface incoming solar irradiation at the Brazilian Northern region by using the regional mesoscale model BRAMS together with a statistical correction for bias removal. This methodology is required to get solar irradiation forecasts due to the systematic errors in solar data provided by numerical simulations related to the cloud variability. The statistical technique proposed for bias removal was developed using observational data acquired at automated weather stations of operated by the Brazilian Institute of Meteorology (INMET) in the study area for the whole year of 2009. The results showed that BRAMS model can simulate monthly and daily cycles of solar radiation satisfactorily, but there is a clear tendency to overestimate values when compared to the observational data. Validations from surface data showed that this statistical technique can significantly reduce these errors, approaching the simulated values to those observed in surface.

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