Dynamics of the COVID-19 - Predictions about Returning to Normal Life

What is it about?

A new coronavirus disease, called COVID-19, appeared in the Chinese region of Wuhan at the end of last year; since then the virus spread to other countries, including most of Europe. We propose a differential equation governing the evolution of the COVID-19. This dynamic equation also describes the evolution of the number of infected people for 13 common respiratory viruses (including the SARS-CoV-2). We validate our theoretical predictions with experimental data for Italy, Belgium and Luxembourg, and compare them with the predictions of the logistic model. We find that our predictions are in good agreement with the real world since the beginning of the appearance of the COVID-19; this is not the case for the logistic model that only applies to the first days. The second part of the work is devoted to modelling the descending phase, i.e. the decrease of the number of people tested positive for COVID-19. Also in this case, we propose a new set of dynamic differential equations that we solved numerically. We use our differential equations parametrised with experimental data to make several predictions, such as the date when Italy, Belgium, and Luxembourg will reach a peak number of SARS-CoV- 2 infected people. The descending curves provide valuable information such as the duration of the COVID-19 epidemic in a given Country and therefore when it will be possible to return to normal life. We find ourselves in a global pandemic, referred to as COVID-19. There is much research underway on all aspects of the pandemic, including to slow its spread, improve diagnostic tests, develop a vaccine, and mathematical models able to foresee the dynamic of this pandemic. In this paper, we develop a mathematical model for the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019. By means of a very simple mathematical model, we study the particular case of Italy, Belgium, and Luxembourg and we provide the dynamic of the descending phase, i.e. the evolution of the decrease number of people tested positive to the COVID-19. The predictions about the descending phase provide valuable information about the duration of the COVID-19 in a given Country, especially when it will be possible to return to normal life. The theoretical predictions are in excellent agreement with the experimental data

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Why is it important?

It concerns new predictions about the dynamics of COVID-19 - first wave.

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