Analyzing Research Activity Duration and Uncertainty in Business Doctorate Degrees

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" On the other hand, the PERT pessimistic effort estimates for DBA research phase tasks were in fact reliable when compared with the empirical data, based on a post-hoc pair-wise (two-tailed unequal variances) t-test (T=0.76, DF=80, P=0.45). This was an unexpected find- ing yet it has useful implications for doctorate supervision practice (and the stakeholders). Deductively, since only one of the three estimates were reliable Ð pessimistic Ð this one should be used to plan research activity durations (after dependencies and resources are applied). Actually this makes the PERT method much easier (quicker) since only one estimate, a pessimistic worst case effort, is needed. This can be obtained through brainstorming with the supervisor (or by applying more advanced techniques such as Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)). Also no weighting factor need be applied (as with PERT) since the pessimistic effort will become the expected duration (thus simplifying the process and calculations)." (p. 44)

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