NAFTA RE Negotiations and Brexit Developments

What is it about?

For how long will the current NAFTA Agreement survive - under current trade relations? Will ongoing NAFTA re negotiations succeed in their aims and objectives? As at January 2017, no one knew what to expect from the incoming Trump administration – more importantly in respect of trade and global relations. Some indicators which had already been provided in respect of what could be expected focused primarily on matters such as the Paris Global Agreement on Climate Change, the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement, NAFTA – as well as greater focus on domestic policy matters – in fulfilment of the campaign promise to “Keep America First”. In respect of national defense and security, there were concerns relating to tensions between Iran, North Korea – as well as possible alienation of NATO partners…… Further, it had been expected that there would be a shift in trading policy stances – particularly to a more protectionist nature – and naturally, that these would impact its major trading allies; namely China, Mexico, Canada and the European Union. On the other side of the coin, Brexit impacts also implied that since the United Kingdom was intending to break away from the EU, and given the similar nature in which the Brexit Referendum reflected a break from traditional conventions – as typified by the Trump administration’s win which also reverberated the wish of voters to break from tradition, it was largely expected that such similarities would consolidate the “Special Relationship” status held between the United States and the United Kingdom.

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Why is it important?

Ongoing Brexit Talks and NAFTA Renegotiations It had been widely anticipated and expected that the Republic of Ireland, and more precisely, the government in Dublin, would present greater challenges to ongoing Brexit talks. No one had expected that the DUP, whose coalition, the UK government (Conservative party) relies upon, would place the brakes on Brexit talks during the ongoing rounds of negotiations. Issues of “regulatory alignment”, namely same or similar trade and customs rules between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, which could imply greater union with the Republic and possibly greater restrictions with customs union between the United Kingdom, presented much of the unexpected challenges and set-backs during the first week of December 2017. From one perspective, it is quite understandable why the Northern Irish government would wish to retain the same relationship with the UK since it has greater economic partnership ties with the United Kingdom and why greater alignment with Ireland in matters relating to the wish to avoid a hard Brexit deal (a hard border between it and Ireland) could also indicate several repercussions for the Northern Irish government. On the 8th December 2017, however, a breakthrough deal which would facilitate Brexit talks into the second phase of negotiations (trade talks), was secured – following a compromise between the Government and its DUP coalition partner. Meanwhile in respect of NAFTA renegotiations, complexities appear to have arisen – with the United States threatening to withdraw from the Agreement – a move which is widely considered to have contributed to the Canadian Prime Minister’s visit to China during the first week of December 2017. However, challenges have also arisen in respect of Justin Trudeau’s preferences for a progressive trade deal which amongst other considerations, embraces environmental and gender related matters. Negociaciones Brexit en curso y Renegociaciones del TLCAN (El Área de Libre Comercio de América del Norte) Se había anticipado y esperado ampliamente que la República de Irlanda, y más precisamente, el gobierno de Dublín, presentaría mayores desafíos para las actuales negociaciones sobre el Brexit. Nadie esperaba que el DUP, cuya coalición, el gobierno del Reino Unido (partido conservador) confiara, frenara las negociaciones del Brexit durante las rondas de negociaciones en curso. Cuestiones de "alineamiento reglamentario", es decir, reglas comerciales y aduaneras iguales o similares entre Irlanda del Norte y la República de Irlanda, que podrían implicar una mayor unión con la República y posiblemente mayores restricciones con la unión aduanera entre el Reino Unido, presentaron muchos de los desafíos inesperados y retrocesos durante la primera semana de diciembre de 2017. Desde una perspectiva, es bastante comprensible por qué el gobierno de Irlanda del Norte desea mantener la misma relación con el Reino Unido ya que tiene mayores lazos de asociación económica con el Reino Unido y por qué una mayor alineación con Irlanda en asuntos relacionados con el deseo de evitar un acuerdo duro con el Brexit (una frontera difícil entre Irlanda y él) también podría indicar varias repercusiones para el gobierno de Irlanda del Norte. Sin embargo, el 8 de diciembre de 2017, se logró un acuerdo que facilitaría las negociaciones del Brexit en la segunda fase de las negociaciones (negociaciones comerciales), tras un compromiso entre el Gobierno y el DUP. Mientras tanto, con respecto a las renegociaciones del TLCAN, parecen haber surgido complejidades, con Estados Unidos amenazando con retirarse del Acuerdo, una medida que se considera ampliamente que ha contribuido a la visita del Primer Ministro canadiense a China durante la primera semana de diciembre de 2017. Sin embargo , también podría presentaría desafíos con respecto a las preferencias de Justin Trudeau para un acuerdo de comercio progresivo que, entre otras consideraciones, abarca cuestiones ambientales y relacionadas con el género.

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