What is it about?
The main aim of the article is presentation pressures of changes in foreign trade policy and geoeconomic risks. The subject of the discussion and theoretical contribution in the undertaken research program is presents international business before 2025, the rise of importance of bilateral agreements in foreign trade policy, new global economic context: uncertainty drives lower growth expectations, the spectre of low growth, uncertainty and financial turbulence, global macrofinancial conditions to remain tight, developing economies in the challenging global context, international markets, dynamism of merchandise trade fades away, capital flows to developing countries: compound risks, private financial flows and public debt, the macroeconomic effects of tariffs, commodity markets not immune to global uncertainty. The uptick in activity towards the end of 2024 mainly reflects a front-loading of trade orders and consumption spending in anticipation of tariff measures and consequent increases in the prices of affected goods. In other words, the dynamism observed in the closing months of 2024 and early weeks of 2025 will prove transitory. Amid escalating trade tensions, developing countries should leverage existing trade relationships and seek out multilateral frameworks and regional arrangements to boost intraregional as well as South–South trade. A strategy of "open regionalism" can offer a workable alternative to the global stalemate and a pathway to achieving development objectives
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Why is it important?
The uptick in activity towards the end of 2024 mainly reflects a front-loading of trade orders and consumption spending in anticipation of tariff measures and consequent increases in the prices of affected goods. In other words, the dynamism observed in the closing months of 2024 and early weeks of 2025 will prove transitory. Notwithstanding the details of the new tariffs the United States announced on 2 April 2025, the prevailing levels of policy uncertainty affect economic activity negatively as companies encounter losses and put off investment and hiring decisions. Similarly, the implementation of successive rounds of restrictive trade measures and geoeconomic confrontation carry the risks of severe disruptions to border-crossing production lines and international trade flows, in turn pulling down economic activity globally. A minor upward revision to the growth estimate for 2024 – compared to what UNCTAD (2024) anticipated – resulted from a stronger than expected performance of the United States economy in the final quarter of 2024. This was partially offset by a weakening of growth in Europe and Latin America.
Perspectives
It's important to emphasize that the overall structure of US trade policy under President Donald Trump's administration has become clear, but the details remain unclear, which will inform supply chain decision-making in the third quarter of 2025. Key issues for supply chains in 2025 and 2026 include: • The Future of Tariffs: US tariffs can be divided into two main actions. An in-depth analysis of the tariff outlook for individual sectors will be provided. A review of recent actions regarding mutual national tariffs, as well as negotiations between countries and potential directions for trade policy developments will be provided. • From Tactics to Strategy: Corporate tactics for dealing with tariffs are well-established, but it's also important to track their evolution. It's important to emphasize that long-term supply chain strategies have been suspended, but the time is coming to resume them. • Tariffs are sucking the oxygen out of the atmosphere when it comes to analyzing risks and opportunities for supply chains. Therefore, upcoming actions by mainland China, the state of EU regulatory policy, and the state of logistics networks are crucial. Current trends indicate a subdued outlook for the manufacturing sector, while instability over tariffs likely adds to risks of a slowdown. Heightened policy uncertainty pushes decision makers to revisit their integration strategies. Companies seek greater market diversity and are scaling up risk management efforts; governments are reassessing their trade policies, weighing the benefits of open trade against the need for protecting domestic interests. The volatile economic landscape calls for agile adaptive measures to navigate the growing vagaries of international trade. Addressing these uncertainties requires countries that recognize the mutual benefits of international trade maintain coordinated efforts in fostering a stable and predictable trading environment.
Professor PhD DSc Zdzisław W. Puślecki
Uniwersytet im Adama Mickiewicza w Poznaniu
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This page is a summary of: Pressures of Changes in Foreign Trade Policy and Geoeconomic Risks, DESIGN CONSTRUCTION MAINTENANCE, November 2025, World Scientific and Engineering Academy and Society (WSEAS),
DOI: 10.37394/232022.2025.5.13.
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