What is it about?
This article explores how different types of uncertainty affect wind power generation, both onshore and offshore, using entropy-based methods. Real wind energy data with 15-minute resolution from four sites—three onshore and one offshore—are analyzed using advanced probabilistic modelling and statistical fitting. The study applies several entropy metrics (Shannon, Rényi, Tsallis, and Permutation) to quantify unpredictability in wind energy output. These entropy values are then integrated into a modified Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) to assess how uncertainty impacts the economic reliability of wind energy. The research offers a novel approach that links physical variability and statistical complexity directly to financial performance indicators.
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Why is it important?
Wind energy is inherently variable, and its unpredictability can affect planning, grid integration, and investment decisions. This article introduces a quantitative way to measure that uncertainty using entropy, a concept rooted in information theory. By linking statistical entropy to economic indicators like the LCOE, the study provides a more complete understanding of wind power’s reliability from both technical and financial perspectives. This is particularly relevant for policymakers, energy planners, and investors who need to evaluate risk in renewable energy portfolios. The methodology also supports smarter design and operation of hybrid energy systems by highlighting which sources are more stable and cost-effective.
Perspectives
This work reflects my interest in bridging abstract mathematical tools with real-world energy problems. I’ve long been fascinated by the question of how uncertainty (often treated as a side issue) can be placed at the centre of energy system evaluation. By applying entropy in a practical, economic context, I aimed to move beyond deterministic assessments and embrace the complexity of renewable energy. My goal was not only to model variability, but to give it meaning in investment and planning decisions. This approach opens new avenues for reliability assessment and risk-aware energy transition strategies.
Dr Fernando M Camilo
Universidade de Lisboa
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Entropy-Based Uncertainty in Onshore and Offshore Wind Power: Implications for Economic Reliability, Energies, May 2025, MDPI AG,
DOI: 10.3390/en18102445.
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