What is it about?

This study examines the dual pressures climate change places on agriculture: reducing carbon emissions and managing climate risks. It focuses on China’s agricultural sector, using panel data from 31 provinces from 2003 to 2023 to analyze the impact of climate change risks (CPRI) on green, low-carbon agricultural development (GAC). The research also investigates the moderating role of agricultural insurance (INS) and spatial spillover effects. The findings reveal that CPRI significantly inhibits GAC, particularly in non-major grain-producing regions and in eastern China. Extreme weather events, such as floods and droughts, result in short-term decision-making by farmers, constraining investments in green technologies and reducing soil carbon sequestration. This inhibitory effect is more significant in the aforementioned regions. The study also identifies that CPRI leads to harmful spatial spillover effects, where indirect impacts across neighboring regions are greater than direct effects within the affected areas. Agricultural insurance (INS) plays a vital role in mitigating these adverse impacts by offering effective risk transfer mechanisms. INS helps reduce the negative effects of extreme weather by providing farmers with financial security, allowing them to continue investing in sustainable practices. In conclusion, the study finds that CPRI significantly hinders the transition to green agriculture, a process that is moderated by insurance and characterized by spatial spillovers. Based on these findings, the study recommends the development of region-specific adaptation strategies, innovation in agricultural insurance products, and the establishment of collaborative governance frameworks that span regions to effectively address the challenges posed by climate change risks and promote green agricultural development.

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Why is it important?

This study is important because it addresses the significant challenges that climate change poses to agriculture, particularly the dual pressures of reducing carbon emissions and managing climate-related risks. These pressures are crucial for the transition to green, low-carbon agricultural development, which is vital for both environmental sustainability and food security. The research is essential because it highlights how climate change risks (CPRI) significantly inhibit green agricultural transition (GAC). It emphasizes that extreme weather events not only disrupt farming decisions in the short term but also hinder investment in green technologies and reduce carbon sequestration in soils. This is especially impactful in non-major grain-producing regions and eastern China, where the effects of CPRI are most severe. The study also underscores the role of agricultural insurance (INS) in mitigating these negative impacts. By offering risk transfer mechanisms, INS helps farmers cope with the financial burden of extreme weather events, allowing them to continue investing in sustainable practices and technologies. This aspect of the research is critical for promoting agricultural resilience to climate risks. Furthermore, the study sheds light on the spatial spillover effects of CPRI, demonstrating that these impacts extend beyond the directly affected regions, with greater indirect effects than direct ones. This insight is important for understanding the broader geographical implications of climate change on agricultural development. The findings are of great significance to policymakers, agricultural stakeholders, and insurance providers, as they advocate for region-specific adaptation strategies, innovations in agricultural insurance products, and the creation of collaborative governance frameworks. These strategies are essential for addressing the wide-ranging challenges that climate change poses to agriculture and for promoting a more sustainable and resilient agricultural sector.

Perspectives

The findings of this study provide important perspectives on how to address the challenges posed by climate change to agriculture. Given that climate change risks (CPRI) significantly hinder green agricultural development, particularly in vulnerable regions such as non-major grain-producing areas and eastern China, it becomes evident that a multifaceted approach is necessary to mitigate these impacts. First, the role of agricultural insurance (INS) is pivotal in enhancing resilience. The study demonstrates that INS can help farmers manage the financial risks associated with extreme weather events, thereby enabling them to continue investing in green technologies. Future research could explore how to design more innovative and regionally tailored insurance products that better address the unique risks faced by different agricultural zones. This could lead to more effective risk transfer mechanisms, fostering greater adoption of low-carbon farming practices. Second, the study highlights the spatial spillover effects of climate change risks, emphasizing the need for policies that go beyond regional boundaries. Given that CPRI's indirect effects on neighboring regions can be more harmful than direct impacts, the importance of cross-regional cooperation becomes clear. Future policy frameworks should encourage collaboration across provinces and even countries to manage the collective risks of climate change. This could include joint climate adaptation strategies, shared insurance schemes, and coordinated responses to extreme weather events. Lastly, the study calls for the development of region-specific adaptation strategies. Policymakers should consider the unique socio-economic conditions, agricultural practices, and environmental vulnerabilities of different regions when designing climate change adaptation plans. By incorporating local knowledge and expertise, these strategies can be more effective in promoting sustainable agricultural practices and addressing the specific needs of farming communities. In conclusion, this research underscores the urgency of integrating climate risk management into agricultural development plans. With the right combination of insurance, spatial planning, and regional cooperation, it is possible to enhance the resilience of agriculture to climate change, ensuring long-term sustainability for both the environment and food security. Future research should continue to refine these strategies, focusing on innovative solutions that address the evolving risks posed by climate change.

Professor ZHAOYANG LU
Southwest University of Political Science and Law

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This page is a summary of: Climate Change Risks and Green Low-Carbon Development in Agriculture: Evidence from China on the Regulatory Role of Agricultural Insurance and Spatial Spillover Effects, Agriculture, December 2025, MDPI AG,
DOI: 10.3390/agriculture16010024.
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