What is it about?
In Indonesia, beef is a highly demanded food item, especially during religious holidays, causing its prices to change often. These price changes can impact the overall cost of living and require the government to adjust policies on beef supply and imports. This study focuses on Java, where beef production and consumption are highest, to understand how beef prices vary over time and across different locations. Using beef price data from August 2022 to May 2024, the research applies different methods to analyze patterns. The key findings show that beef prices in Java are mostly affected by time, especially around major holidays, rather than by location. However, prices do vary slightly from one city or market to another. The best way to predict future beef prices is by using time-based models, which help forecast trends more accurately. These insights can help businesses, policymakers, and consumers better anticipate beef price changes, ensuring stable supply and pricing in the future.
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Why is it important?
Beef is a staple in Indonesia, but its prices swing dramatically—especially during religious holidays—affecting inflation and government policies. While past studies have looked at food prices, this research is the first to combine time, location, and space-time analysis for beef prices in Java, Indonesia’s most populous and economically critical region.
Perspectives
Working on this study has been particularly meaningful to me because beef isn’t just a commodity in Indonesia—it’s deeply tied to culture, religion, and daily life. Seeing how price fluctuations impact both consumers and policymakers firsthand motivated me to dig deeper into the data. What surprised me most was how clearly religious holidays drove price spikes, more than geographic differences. It reinforced how economics and tradition are intertwined in ways that pure numbers alone can’t capture. I also enjoyed bridging technical methods like ARIMA and spatial modeling with real-world questions. Too often, statistical models stay confined to academic papers, but here, they offer concrete tools for smarter decision-making—whether for a small trader stocking up before Eid or a ministry planning import quotas. If there’s one thing I hope readers take away, it’s that data isn’t just about predictions; it’s about people. Understanding beef prices isn’t just an economic exercise—it’s about making food more affordable and stable for millions. That’s what makes this work worth doing.
Ahmad Fuad Zainuddin
Universitas Prasetiya Mulya
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: BEEF PRICE FORECASTING BASED ON TEMPORAL, SPATIAL AND SPACE-TIME PARAMETER INDICES, BAREKENG JURNAL ILMU MATEMATIKA DAN TERAPAN, July 2025, Universitas Pattimura,
DOI: 10.30598/barekengvol19iss3pp1805-1824.
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