What is it about?

This paper describes a statistical approach that can be used to predict and assess future space traffic conditions. It is able to use low-fidelity data to produce results that track well with the higher fidelity tools used during spacecraft operations.

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Why is it important?

This paper describes an open-source analysis tool that can be used early in the space mission design process, providing insight on the operational traffic conditions expected at various orbital altitudes. The tool provides unique capabilities because of the low-fidelity data needed to produce insightful results. Using Probability of Conjunction before deciding on an orbit can significantly reduce the collision deconfliction burden on satellite operators.

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This page is a summary of: Planning for Future Conjunctions, November 2021, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA),
DOI: 10.2514/6.2021-4106.
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