On the Mitigation of Solar Index Variability for High Precision Orbit Determination in Low Earth Orbit

What is it about?

This paper examines the effects of uncertainty in the prediction of solar and geomagnetic indices on the accuracy in orbit prediction. These index values drive atmospheric density models, which are used to calculate drag forces on the satellite. It has been shown that uncertainty in these predictions is large enough, that a more accurate orbit prediction may be obtained by fixing these indices at constant values throughout the fit and prediction spans of the orbit determination process.

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Why is it important?

This paper gives guidance on dealing with uncertainty in the solar and geomagnetic index values. By holding these values constant, instead of using inaccurate predictions, a more accurate orbit prediction may be obtained. This result is useful to any satellite operator that needs accurate orbit predictions in an orbit regime where drag forces are present.