What is it about?
The development and operation of any space system face a variety of uncertainties. We have developed a taxonomy that structures such uncertainties. In addition, we have identified the dependencies between them, enabling an evaluation of how uncertainties may be affected when another uncertainty materializes.
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Why is it important?
Our work facilitates comprehensiveness when evaluating the effects of uncertainties to space systems, both during their development and their operation. In addition, it enables understanding the interaction between different uncertainties, as their likelihood or severity may change once a given uncertainty materializes. In essence, our work helps in better assessing the risks associated to space systems development and operation.
Perspectives
I think this paper provides a good foundational stone to pursue quantitative research on uncertainty dependency. So far, academia and industry treat uncertainties (or risks) as independent element. However, many of them are related and can change as a given risk materializes. Therefore, it is instrumental in risk assessment and failure analysis to understand not only the impacts of a given risk materializing on the system, but also on other uncertainties surrounding the success of a system development or operation.
Dr Alejandro Salado
Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: Taxonomy and Categorization of Uncertainties in Space Systems with an Application to the Measurement of the Value of Adaptability, September 2012, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA),
DOI: 10.2514/6.2012-5195.
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