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The safety risks of novel aircraft concepts is less understood. This is primarily due to two reasons - 1) Less experience and knowledge about failure modes and scenarios, and 2) Less data to quantify the probability of such failures. This article proposes a method to overcome these shortcomings by utilizing system performance models to identify and characterize safety critical scenarios. To address the uncertainty with probability data, a Bayesian framework is proposed that utilizes subject matter expert knowledge and available data and can be continuously updated as more data become available. A case study on the NASA X-57 Distributed Electric Propulsion Aircraft is provided as an example.

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This page is a summary of: Off-Nominal Performance and Reliability of Novel Aircraft Concepts During Early Design, Journal of Aircraft, November 2021, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA), DOI: 10.2514/1.c036395.
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