What is it about?

This paper formulates methods to estimate collision rates between tracked Earth-orbiting satellites. It derives collision rates and probabilities as statistical expectation values, based on the measurement uncertainties of the satellite trajectories, using a methodology appropriate for both single-encounter and multi-encounter satellite interactions.

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Why is it important?

This paper provides a first-principles derivation of satellite collision rates and probabilities that accounts for curved trajectories as well as both single-encounter and multi-encounter interactions.

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This page is a summary of: Expected Collision Rates for Tracked Satellites, Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, January 2021, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA), DOI: 10.2514/1.a34919.
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