In South Africa, the telecommunications and media sector relies on other things than regulation

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In view of the web of conjectures possibly explaining the initiatives and conduct of telecommunications regulatory changes, a change in this web can only be found in external influencing factors or strengthened visions. Obviously their uptake depends on policy makers. Some relevant possibilities are the following: 1. Enact in Parlament a constitutional right to communicate, so that all geographical areas and/or segments of the population get an enforceable process to get telecommunications access by whichever technology is the most appropriate in each specific case; this step would also put Parlament back into becoming a driver. 2. Privatize all of Telekom, in whole or in parts, and sell off Government stakes in all operators in which it has direct shareholdings (e.g. minority position in Vodacom Group), while maintaining sovereign interests; this would bring capital for the technology and business evolutions especially of Telkom, higher public attention, and remove the “judge-and-party” effect of Conjecture 2; it would also allow to open up for local loop unbundling and competition; high employee counts at Telkom (see Table 1) may be a social problem. 3. Encourage, and reinvest spectrum auction revenues, in the creation of local upstarts or product developments serving better coverage at low cost (community picocells, advanced DSLAM’s, Internet access via TV, specific applications, local content, etc.); help develop role models in young enterprises having already by themselves an international footprint (e.g.: Call fraud fighting, traffic monitoring, by-pass control company Global Voice Group SA www.globalvoicegroup.com; Dimension Data, IT service provider acquired by NTT of Japan; US listed but South Africa owned S1 Corp with its Postillon card-payment engine; and others). 4. Re-allocate the universal service revenues towards “mobile social tariffs” for the needy for their inclusion in the workforce and society; this would cost operators nothing extra, and generate new eGovernement applications (esp. job center applications) to support these populations. 5. Initiate and contribute via ICASA to a Southern and Eastern Africa regulatory body with executive powers in cross-borders issues (international interconnects, spectrum harmonization, etc..), in order to support wider regional economic exchanges and raise the regulator’s role beyond purely South African issues; this would also allow to catch up with strong role models like Kenya (Communications Commission of Kenya CCK), Uganda etc. where ISP’s are freed from incumbents, mobile users are sitting pretty with their better customer service, easy number portability, 50 % cut in interconnection rates, and a local applications industry (Kenya ranked 5 th worldwide by BuzzCity Mobile in mobile advertising; Ushahidi safety risk mapping) (Africa Report,2011c) 6. Enhance the pool of local ICT specialists, not by relying on slow-to-change universities and business schools, or foreign consultants, but by more aggressive measures; an idea to follow is the one by the ONG African leadership program, which sends candidates abroad, provided they commit to return to South Africa, like Singapore’s “bonding” scheme for promising civil servants. 7. Address Conjecture 1 by encouraging banks and operators to upgrade significantly mobile banking uptake amongst the less favored citizens; operators should get a limited banking license, and banks a limited communications license (hot spots around ATM’s) to change the business model around bank branches; in Kenya mobile banking is ahead of branch based banking: an M-Pesa mobile money account is what keeps customers with Safaricom and Equity Bank , or M-Kesho keeps other customers with Orange and with Equity Bank (again). 8. Lay out a plan whereby private operators can support and enhance the economic expansion of South African enterprises abroad, by relying on the enhanced capabilities they should be able to offer vs. local and other operators (Daniel & Naidoo, 2003),(Aykut & Goldstein, 2007),(Grobbelaar, 2004),(Esselaar, 2009). Other sectors may benefit as well from these changes and their own. As the electrical grid and renewable energy production improves, should be strengthened the use the sea-cables for data center operations and outsourced support center operations (currently 15 data centers in South Africa), targeting the low end of that market (e.g. Teraco in Cape Town and Durban) (Africa Report, 2011d) Such measures would help evolve a new ecosystem at operators’, regulator and in the economy, while operationalizing digital divide and unemployment issues which are bound to last.

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