Projecting the water demand for the City of Cape Town using statistical methods

What is it about?

The City of Cape Town has been affected by several water shortages although various water conservation and water demand initiatives were implemented. The objective of this study was to predict the future demand by the City of Cape Town by analyzing its significant drivers for the period 2002 to 2012. For this purpose, a statistical analysis method was applied, namely a multiple linear regression analysis.

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Why is it important?

The regression analysis showed that the water demand of the city of Cape Town is mainly driven by population and water losses. In addition, the model indicated that new water sources would be required by 2021. Water scarcity is already a global risk and it must be assumed that the pressure on water resources will increase dramatically in the coming decades due to a growing world population, economic development and climatic changes as an additional stress factor. The sustainable management of water resources becomes therefore vital. In this regard, water demand forecasts based on statistical analysis methods such as the regression analysis are of major importance since significant drivers may be identified. As a result, water conservation and water supply strategies can be adapted accordingly to ultimately enable a sustainable management of water sources.