The Deferral of Attacks: SP/A Theory as a Model of Terrorist Choice

What is it about?

When terrorists' aspirations far exceed the outcomes that can be expected from the available attack methods, losses (outcomes below the aspiration level) are inevitable. SP/A Theory predicts risk aversion in the domain of inevitable losses, leading us to expect that terrorist groups will defer their attacks under such circumstances. As such, after attacks that record significant payoffs, the number of days until the next attack is expected to be greater than the average number of days between attacks that has characterised a particular contest between terrorist groups.

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Why is it important?

Terrorism studies has taken a noticeable 'criminological turn'. This paper, in conjunction with our other work, represents part of an overarching analytical framework that provides new perspectives for law enforcement practitioners engaged in ongoing counter-terrorism initiatives and investigations.