What is it about?
We describe a new of set of indexes produced by the Chicago Fed that can be used to measure U.S. economic conditions in realtime based on 500 monthly measures of growth in U.S. economic activity and U.S. real GDP growth.
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Why is it important?
The Coincident and Leading Index are shown to be highly accurate indicators of historical U.S. recessions and expansions, and simple threshold rules are presented which when crossed highlight an increasing likelihood of a recession.
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This page is a summary of: A “big data” view of the U.S. economy: Introducing the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes, Chicago Fed Letter, January 2019, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago,
DOI: 10.21033/cfl-2019-422.
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