What is it about?
In this article we explicitly find the conditions under which the mean Modified-Omori law decreasing behavior of a seismic sequences is violated in a fixed forecasting period by the occurrence of a single strong aftershock.
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Why is it important?
Explicit derivation of the probability that the Modified-Omori law behavior will be broken significantly by at least one aftershock.
Perspectives
Results obtained in this article can be used in an operational perspective because they provide, just after the mainshock, the probability to deliver reliable forecasts when using a model based only on the mainshock magnitude.
Dr Ilaria IS Spassiani
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia
Read the Original
This page is a summary of: How Likely Does an Aftershock Sequence Conform to a Single Omori Law Behavior?, Seismological Research Letters, April 2018, Seismological Society of America (SSA),
DOI: 10.1785/0220170224.
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