Methane emissions from elements of gas distribution networks and the energy security of EU countries

What is it about?

The scale of methane emissions from gas distribution systems has serious consequences for energy security, ensuring the security of natural gas transmission and reducing gas losses in transport. That is why it is important to determine the scale of such emissions from individual elements of the infrastructure. It has been confirmed that such emissions have a significant effect on the military security of EU countries. The emission factor (EF) is affected by many other causes. The best method of calculating the EF is one that takes into account the most variables. A theoretical method of determining the EF has been developed, taking into consideration the age of the equipment as well as pressure, temperature and speed. When comparing the methods in the literature to date, one has to bear in mind that none of them describes the variables that affect the magnitude of the EF. To map an actual emission, it is crucial to have data that describes the gas infrastructure component under analysis, along with the most precise information available to characterise the operat-ing conditions. KEY WORDS: energy security, military security, methane emission factors, gas distribution network, natural gas

Featured Image

Photo by Marcin Jozwiak on Unsplash

Photo by Marcin Jozwiak on Unsplash

Why is it important?

Methane emissions have a significant effect from the point of viewof ensuring an optimal level continuity of energy supply to military in-frastructure and industrial plants which are important from the perspec-tive of state defence. As it has been proven, attacks aimed at gas distribu-tion networks as part of hybrid warfare will be used in different ways toweaken political, economic and military capabilities of the attackedcountry. By exploiting damage to gas distribution networks caused bythe enemy as well as resulting methane emissions and related threats, theenemy deals a blow to the reliability and efficiency of the network ina large part of the country. Thus, the claim of a significant effect of me-thane emissions from gas distribution networks on the military securityof EU states has been confirmed.Distribution networks need to play an important role in the pro-cess of assessing reliability and efficiency risks and threats connectedwith states' critical energy infrastructure. It allows states to more ef-fectively predict threats to their functioning and to more accuratelyrespond to challenges brought by hybrid warfare in the scope con-templated in this article.It is important to ensure proper care for gas distribution networks inthe defence policies of EU states. In a period prior to a conflict, it is im-portant to increase the attention of armed forces to ensuring energy secu-rity in this scope. Particularly important will be the intensification ofmonitoring and careful updating of detailed action plans in case of cyberattacks as well as diversion and sabotage activities.The estimation of the scale of emission rates of a part of a gas distri-bution network in conjunction with a list of connections to such networkthat are important from the point of view of military security allowsidentifying and determining the order of investments in a given gas net-work that is favourable from the military point of view. It is also possibleto use the analytic hierarchic process (AHP), currently used both forenergy and military purposes36. A practical application of the EF will facilitate determining to what degree losses are caused by emission fac-tors caused by intentional acts of the enemy.The article outlines a new concept which, on the one hand, stand-ardises and, on the other hand, increases the accuracy of emissivityfactors from a gas grid. It is worth emphasising that the innovativenature of the methodology outlined in this text addresses all the mostsignificant variables, such as the proportionality factor of diffusion,pressure, weight density or velocity of the transferred liquid. As a re-sult, a theoretical model can be developed that allows a very accuraterepresentation of actual emissions, provided that accurate input data isavailable.The best EF calculation method is one that incorporates as manyvariables as possible. Comparing the methods existing in the literature todate, it should be acknowledged that none of them is optimal. This ap-plies even to method 3, where several factors are determined for eachgroup of objects, taking into account the characteristics of each ofthem. The main disadvantage of this method is of key importance here:change of a given parameter, e.g. pressure, causes the emission value tovary. In the present state of research, the most optimal method used inthe EU is the fourth method presented in the study by Marcogaz(LDAR). The methodology outlined is easily imagined in relation to thedetermination of heat influx with characteristic numbers. With tabulatednumerical values as well as ambient and material physical properties, weare able to determine the heat flux or other properties, such as the heattransfer coefficient.Thus, it is relatively uncomplicated to perform the required calcula-tions by altering or updating only the values of the individual variables.The presented method of determining the EF facilitates an analysis ofinfrastructure durability and resistance in relation to potential acts ofwar. An analysis of the above-mentioned dependencies also points toa possibility of calculating to what degree the emission scale results fromthe level of corrosion/deformation of gas installations. This factor, whichdepends on state policies, increases the scale of emissions caused inten-tionally by enemy activities during war activity. EFs will be developedand specified more precisely over some years, while the implementationof artificial intelligence will allow improved detection, prediction andmaking more accurate decisions concerning the replacement of defectiveinfrastructure.

Perspectives