What is it about?
This article discusses modelling of Aboveground Net Primary Production (ANPP) of steppe (arid grassland ecosystems) plant species in relation to changes in total precipitation over the previous year at the “Stara” study site, Biosphere Reserve “Askania-Nova”, Kherson region (Ukraine). To investigate linkages between precipitation and Aboveground Net Primary Production, correlation analysis was chosen and a time series regression analysis was based on the data set for the period 1988–2012. The NPP dependence on quantity of precipitation was found to be more significant for the previous autumn-winter-spring period (AWSP) than for the previous 12 month period. A regression model of ANPP’s dependence on AWSP is proposed. On the basis of the regression model and current forecasts of changes in precipitation rates we made a forecast of net primary production of plant communities for four climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5) described in the Fifth Assessment of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For this purpose, bioclimate projections of 10 major climate models (The Community Climate System Model Version 4 (CCSM4), GISS-E2-R, HadGEM2-AO, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, MIROC-ESM, MIROC5, MRICGCM3, NorESM1-M), used for preparation of the IPCC report, were analyzed and imported to the geographical information system package QGIS. QGIS modelling software was used for geoanalysis and calculation of GIS-layers for Askania-Nova and adjacent arid grasslands. The results of modelling with the 10 climate models were compared and analyzed for each of the four IPCC scenarios, depending on predicted CO2 levels. The presented modelling results showed a trend to growth in AWSP precipitation and NPP for all scenarios up to 2040–2060. The scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6 predicted the optimum precipitation zone for current plant diversity for the period of 2040–2060 and scenario RCP8.5 predicted an optimum zone peak after 2080.
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Why is it important?
The study confirmed the importance of monitoring the productivity of herbaceous communities in dry steppe ecosystems of Ukraine.
Perspectives
We intend to continue our research of Climate Change impact on productivity of natural ecosystems. I suppose that role of species diversity in maintaining grasslands productivity under the pressure of climatic factors is not investigated sufficiently. I hope the publication of the article will help to find new collaborators for this study.
Iryna Vyshenska
National University "Kyiv-Mohyla academy"
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This page is a summary of: Modelling the dynamics of total precipitation and aboveground net primary production of fescue-feather grass steppe at Askania Nova according to global climate change scenariosModelling the dynamics of total precipitation and aboveground net primary ..., Biosystems Diversity, January 2017, Oles Honchar Dnipropetrovsk National University,
DOI: 10.15421/011703.
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