What is it about?

Optional safety systems always entail a compromise between added safety and risk. A classic example relates to automobile air-bags which save thousands of lives annually, at the cost of a small number of air-bag induced injuries and fatalities. The crossover point is not a simple 50:50 threshold, as it depends on the overall likelihood of the accident occurrence. This paper provides a robust quantitative method for optimizing the risk/benefit tradeoff when assessing the desirability of an optional safety system. The paper is set in an aircraft systems certification context, but has broad applicability to all similar system safety assessments.

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Why is it important?

The aircraft certification process doesn't currently account for the added safety of optional safety systems. Certification acceptance criteria are based solely on system failure probabilities (see FAA AC 1309-1E), so a number of potentially beneficial innovations are excluded from consideration. This paper introduces a robust quantitative technique based on Signal Detection Theory (SDT) and Bayesian methods to optimize the risk/benefit compromise. This should facilitate the adoption of new technologies that will result in an overall increase in safety as compared to the existing methodology.

Perspectives

As an experimental test pilot with a Human Factors and Safety Doctorate, I have a profound interest in safety systems and their relationship to aircrew behaviour and aircraft accidents. Recent events have clearly demonstrated the importance of these relationships, and the need for thoughtful consideration of their consequences. This paper represents a small step towards opening up helpful technologies that might otherwise be excluded from consideration.

Dr. John M. Maris
AIAA

I believe that the principle of risk/benefit analysis suggested by John Maris for aircraft optional safety systems certification, should be used not in aviation only, and it should help increase safety of different devices.

Dr. Alexander V. Ilyin
State Research Institute of Aviation Systems, Moscow, Russia

Read the Original

This page is a summary of: The application of Signal Detection Theory principles to aircraft certification, International Journal of Aviation Aeronautics and Aerospace, January 2019, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University/Hunt Library,
DOI: 10.15394/ijaaa.2019.1349.
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