What is it about?
Optional safety systems always entail a compromise between added safety and risk. A classic example relates to automobile air-bags which save thousands of lives annually, at the cost of a small number of air-bag induced injuries and fatalities. The crossover point is not a simple 50:50 threshold, as it depends on the overall likelihood of the accident occurrence. This paper provides a robust quantitative method for optimizing the risk/benefit tradeoff when assessing the desirability of an optional safety system. The paper is set in an aircraft systems certification context, but has broad applicability to all similar system safety assessments.
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Why is it important?
The aircraft certification process doesn't currently account for the added safety of optional safety systems. Certification acceptance criteria are based solely on system failure probabilities (see FAA AC 1309-1E), so a number of potentially beneficial innovations are excluded from consideration. This paper introduces a robust quantitative technique based on Signal Detection Theory (SDT) and Bayesian methods to optimize the risk/benefit compromise. This should facilitate the adoption of new technologies that will result in an overall increase in safety as compared to the existing methodology.
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This page is a summary of: The application of Signal Detection Theory principles to aircraft certification, International Journal of Aviation Aeronautics and Aerospace, January 2019, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University/Hunt Library,
DOI: 10.15394/ijaaa.2019.1349.
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